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OH Leuven crestOH Leuven
v
Lommel United crestLommel United

Jupiler Pro League | Sat 24 Oct, 17:15

OH Leuven v Lommel United Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 18:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Jupiler Pro League clash features OH Leuven, struggling near the bottom of the table with just 5 points, hosting Lommel United who sit comfortably mid-table with 11 points. Both teams have shown modest attacking output, averaging 0.8 goals per game, but Lommel's slightly better recent form and defensive resilience suggest they can avoid defeat here. Tactical discipline and defensive organization will be key, as OH Leuven seek to improve their home form while Lommel United aim to extend their unbeaten run and capitalize on their superior league position.

BT4Y best bet

Lommel United or Draw

  • Lommel United hold a 6-point advantage and better recent form than OH Leuven.
  • Both teams average just 0.8 goals per game, indicating a tight contest likely to avoid a home win.
  • Lommel United have a stronger defensive record despite conceding slightly more on average.
  • The model assigns a 76% chance for Lommel United or Draw, showing clear value at 1.91 .
  • OH Leuven have a low over 2.5 goals rate (20%), supporting a cautious, low-scoring game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lommel United or Draw with a 76.1% chance, reflecting their superior form and league standing. Despite similar goal-scoring averages, Lommel's defensive solidity and recent points accumulation give them an edge. The at 1.91 offer positive value against the implied 52.4% chance. The model is strong at 78%, supported by Lommel's ability to avoid defeat away from home. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on data and tactical context.

Model Chance57% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+13.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance57% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+13.5 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge57% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+13.5 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence78%
Strong positive
Recent FormLommel United better recent points
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lommel United's steadier form and higher league standing make the double chance a sensible pick. Their defensive resilience contrasts with OH Leuven's struggles, suggesting Lommel can at least secure a draw. This bet balances tactical caution with statistical backing, offering a pragmatic approach to this fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and defensive solidity

“Lommel United's ability to grind out results and maintain defensive discipline away from home makes the double chance a smart selection in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Lommel United or Draw evidence

Lommel United hold a 6-point advantage and better recent form than OH Leuven.

Both teams average just 0.8 goals per game, indicating a tight contest likely to avoid a home win.

Lommel United have a stronger defensive record despite conceding slightly more on average.

The model assigns a 76% chance for Lommel United or Draw, showing clear value at 1.91 .

What To Watch In The Data

Lommel United or Draw notes

  • The last 10 meetings average 3.2 goals per game, suggesting potential for goals, but current season data indicates a more cautious approach.
  • Lommel's higher over 2.5 goals rate (40%) contrasts with OH Leuven's 20%, hinting that Lommel may push for goals while maintaining defensive discipline, fitting a balanced game tempo with scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

OH Leuven0.8
Avg goals scored
Lommel United0.8
OH Leuven1.2
Avg goals conceded
Lommel United1.4
OH Leuven40%
BTTS rate
Lommel United20%
OH Leuven20%
Over 2.5 goals
Lommel United40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 44% · edge +13.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 29%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams average only 0.8 goals per game, with OH Leuven's over 2.5 goals rate at a low 20%, indicating a likely tight, low-scoring game. BTTS rates are mixed but lean towards no, supporting a cautious attacking outlook. This suggests goals may be limited, fitting a scenario where Lommel United can secure a draw or narrow win.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

OH Leuven

DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 5L
11 Oct 2026A Union St. Gilloise1-1
19 Sep 2026H RAAL La Louvière2-0
12 Sep 2026H Cercle Brugge1-1
06 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-3
03 Sep 2026A Gent0-1

Lommel United

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
09 Oct 2026A SK Beveren3-1
19 Sep 2026H KV Mechelen0-0
12 Sep 2026A Union St. Gilloise0-5
04 Sep 2026H Club Brugge KV0-1
29 Aug 2026A Cercle Brugge1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Lommel United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Lommel United to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
OH Leuven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
OH Leuven to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form favors Lommel United, who have collected 7 points compared to OH Leuven's 5. Lommel's ability to avoid defeat in recent matches underpins the double chance pick. OH Leuven's struggles to convert chances and defensive lapses have limited their points tally, reinforcing Lommel's advantage in momentum and .
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLommel United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
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Lommel United to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
OH Leuven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
The 57% for Lommel United or Draw sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (+13.5 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%OH Leuven Over 2.5
40%Lommel United Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings average 3.2 goals per game, suggesting potential for goals, but current season data indicates a more cautious approach. Lommel's higher over 2.5 goals rate (40%) contrasts with OH Leuven's 20%, hinting that Lommel may push for goals while maintaining defensive discipline, fitting a balanced game tempo with scoring opportunities.

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