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O'Higgins crestO'Higgins
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 07 May, 23:00

O'Higgins v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 26 Jun 2026, 23:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

O'Higgins face Sao Paulo in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 07 May, 23:00. O'Higgins come in with 6 recent points and 1.33 goals per match, while Sao Paulo have 7 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 1.88, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • O'Higgins lead the corner sample at 6.33 per match, with Sao Paulo lower at 6.33.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: O'Higgins average 14 and Sao Paulo average 11.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. O'Higgins lead the corner sample at 6.33 per match, with Sao Paulo lower at 6.33.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 53% implied
Strong positive
O'Higgins lead the corner sample at 6.33 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers O'Higgins lead the corner sample at 6.33 per match, with Sao Paulo lower at 6.33. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

O'Higgins lead the corner sample at 6.33 per match, with Sao Paulo lower at 6.33.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: O'Higgins average 14 and Sao Paulo average 11.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

O'Higgins6.33
Avg corners for
Sao Paulo6.33
O'Higgins11.33
Avg total corners
Sao Paulo14.33
O'Higgins2.67
Avg yellow cards
Sao Paulo2.33
O'Higgins14
Avg shots
Sao Paulo11
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 53% · edge +15.8 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
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Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

O'Higgins1.33
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo1
O'Higgins0.67
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo0
O'Higgins0%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo0%
O'Higgins0%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 40% · edge +6.1 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
O'Higgins to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
O'Higgins Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Sao Paulo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

O'Higgins

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
29 Apr 2026H Boston River2-0
14 Apr 2026A Sao Paulo0-2
08 Apr 2026H Millonarios2-0

Sao Paulo

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
29 Apr 2026A Millonarios0-0
14 Apr 2026H O'Higgins2-0
08 Apr 2026A Boston River1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 65% · edge +0.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Sao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
O'Higgins to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
O'Higgins Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0O'Higgins wins
0Draws
1Sao Paulo wins
14 Apr 2026Sao Paulo v O'Higgins2-0
Best odds for this sectionSao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 40% · edge +6.1 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
O'Higgins to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The head-to-head sample gives context for Sao Paulo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

O'Higgins6
Played
Sao Paulo6
O'Higgins1.3
Avg goals for
Sao Paulo1
O'Higgins1
Avg goals against
Sao Paulo0.2
O'Higgins3
Clean sheets
Sao Paulo5
Best odds for this sectionSao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 40% · edge +6.1 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
O'Higgins to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
O'Higgins Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season data supports Sao Paulo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Sao Paulo1263305
2O'Higgins1063122
CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%O'Higgins Over 2.5
0%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: O'Higgins sit at 0% and Sao Paulo sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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