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Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
v
Newcastle crestNewcastle

Premier League | Sun 10 May, 14:00

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 04:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nottingham Forest face Newcastle in Premier League on Sun 10 May, 14:00. Nottingham Forest have found a rich vein of league form, scoring 16 goals in five matches and winning three on the bounce.

BT4Y best bet

Nottingham Forest Win

  • At 6/4, Nottingham Forest Win implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.
  • Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for Newcastle.
  • Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Nottingham Forest Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Nottingham Forest sit 16 in the table, while Newcastle sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Nottingham Forest Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for Newcastle. Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 40% implied
Strong positive
Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Nottingham Forest Win is the preferred angle because forest Return Home With One Mission Left. Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for Newcastle. Their recent matches have felt stretched, emotional and wildly open at times, but for Forest supporters that is far preferable to sterile football played in fear.

Main risk

Their recent matches have felt stretched, emotional and wildly open at times, but for Forest supporters that is far preferable to sterile football played in fear.

Key Data Signals

Nottingham Forest Win evidence

Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.

Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for Newcastle.

Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Nottingham Forest Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Nottingham Forest sit 16 in the table, while Newcastle sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Nottingham Forest Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Nottingham Forest4.2
    Avg corners for
    Newcastle3.8
    Nottingham Forest10.8
    Avg total corners
    Newcastle9.2
    Nottingham Forest2
    Avg yellow cards
    Newcastle2.2
    Nottingham Forest9.8
    Avg shots
    Newcastle12.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.7 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more Premier League analysisNottingham Forest v Newcastle predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nottingham Forest3.2
    Avg goals scored
    Newcastle1.2
    Nottingham Forest0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Newcastle1.6
    Nottingham Forest60%
    BTTS rate
    Newcastle80%
    Nottingham Forest80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Newcastle80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 58% · edge +18.1 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 37% · edge +37 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
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    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Nottingham Forest to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nottingham Forest

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    04 May 2026A Chelsea3-1
    24 Apr 2026A Sunderland5-0
    19 Apr 2026H Burnley4-1
    12 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-1
    22 Mar 2026A Tottenham3-0

    Newcastle

    WLLLL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 6L
    02 May 2026H Brighton3-1
    25 Apr 2026A Arsenal0-1
    18 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2
    12 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace1-2
    22 Mar 2026H Sunderland1-2
    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 37% · edge +37 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.54
    Check odds @ 1.54
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Nottingham Forest wins
    1Draws
    6Newcastle wins
    05 Oct 2025Newcastle v Nottingham Forest2-0
    23 Feb 2025Newcastle v Nottingham Forest4-3
    10 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest v Newcastle1-3
    28 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest v Newcastle1-1
    10 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest v Newcastle2-3
    26 Dec 2023Newcastle v Nottingham Forest1-3
    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 37% · edge +37 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Nottingham Forest to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Nottingham Forest38
    Played
    Newcastle38
    Nottingham Forest1.3
    Avg goals for
    Newcastle1.4
    Nottingham Forest1.3
    Avg goals against
    Newcastle1.4
    Nottingham Forest9
    Clean sheets
    Newcastle8
    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 37% · edge +37 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Nottingham Forest to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    12Newcastle493814717-2
    16Nottingham Forest4438111116-3
    Nottingham Forest sit in position 16, while Newcastle sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Nottingham Forest Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    80%Newcastle Over 2.5
    3.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nottingham Forest sit at 80% and Newcastle sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Nottingham Forest v Newcastle prediction

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    Betting context

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