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Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
v
Newcastle crestNewcastle

Premier League | Wed 03 Mar, 20:00

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 23:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nottingham Forest face Newcastle in Premier League on Wed 03 Mar, 20:00. Nottingham Forest have found a rich vein of league form, scoring 16 goals in five matches and winning three on the bounce.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Nottingham Forest Win

  • At 6/4, Nottingham Forest Win implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.
  • Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nottingham Forest.
  • Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Nottingham Forest Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Nottingham Forest sit 13 in the table, while Newcastle sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Nottingham Forest Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 40% while the model sits nearer 27% (-13 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Nottingham Forest Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nottingham Forest. Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 40% implied
Negative
Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Nottingham Forest Win is the preferred angle because forest Return Home With One Mission Left. Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nottingham Forest. Their recent matches have felt stretched, emotional and wildly open at times, but for Forest supporters that is far preferable to sterile football played in fear.

Main risk

Their recent matches have felt stretched, emotional and wildly open at times, but for Forest supporters that is far preferable to sterile football played in fear.

Key Data Signals

Nottingham Forest Win evidence

Forest Return Home With One Mission Left.

Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nottingham Forest.

Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Nottingham Forest Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Nottingham Forest sit 13 in the table, while Newcastle sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Nottingham Forest Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nottingham Forest0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Newcastle1.8
    Nottingham Forest1
    Avg goals conceded
    Newcastle1.8
    Nottingham Forest40%
    BTTS rate
    Newcastle80%
    Nottingham Forest40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Newcastle80%

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nottingham Forest

    LWDDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 2L
    19 Sep 2026H Coventry0-1
    12 Sep 2026A Aston Villa2-1
    05 Sep 2026H Tottenham0-0
    29 Aug 2026A Liverpool2-2
    22 Aug 2026H Leeds0-1

    Newcastle

    WLDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 1L
    19 Sep 2026H Hull City2-1
    14 Sep 2026A Leeds1-4
    05 Sep 2026H Bournemouth2-2
    29 Aug 2026A Tottenham2-0
    23 Aug 2026H Liverpool2-2

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    80%Newcastle Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nottingham Forest sit at 40% and Newcastle sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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