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Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
v
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

Premier League | Sun 24 May, 16:00

Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 09:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nottingham Forest face Bournemouth in Premier League on Sun 24 May, 16:00. Bournemouth enter the final weekend highly motivated for Champions League qualification under departing manager Andoni Iraola, backed by an elite 18-match unbeaten run.

BT4Y best bet

Combines the outright match winner with a prerequisite that both teams score

  • At 5/2, Bournemouth Win & BTTS implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • A dramatic transformation in forward production since Pereira altered the offensive system between the lines.
  • Bournemouth need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Nottingham Forest on 10 and Bournemouth on 11.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Nottingham Forest and 60% for Bournemouth.
  • Bournemouth Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 3 for Nottingham Forest and 1.8 for Bournemouth are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Bournemouth Win & BTTS sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Bournemouth need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Nottingham Forest on 10 and Bournemouth on 11. A dramatic transformation in forward production since Pereira altered the offensive system between the lines.

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Positive
Bournemouth need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
A dramatic transformation in forward production since Pereira altered.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bournemouth Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because a dramatic transformation in forward production since Pereira altered the offensive system between the lines. Bournemouth need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Nottingham Forest on 10 and Bournemouth on 11. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Bournemouth Win & BTTS evidence

A dramatic transformation in forward production since Pereira altered the offensive system between the lines.

Bournemouth need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Nottingham Forest on 10 and Bournemouth on 11.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Nottingham Forest and 60% for Bournemouth.

Bournemouth Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 3 for Nottingham Forest and 1.8 for Bournemouth are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Bournemouth Win & BTTS notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nottingham Forest3
Avg goals scored
Bournemouth1.8
Nottingham Forest1.2
Avg goals conceded
Bournemouth0.8
Nottingham Forest80%
BTTS rate
Bournemouth60%
Nottingham Forest80%
Over 2.5 goals
Bournemouth60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Premier League analysisfull betting preview for Nottingham Forest v Bournemouthcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
Bournemouth Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nottingham Forest3.8
Avg corners for
Bournemouth6.2
Nottingham Forest8.8
Avg total corners
Bournemouth10.4
Nottingham Forest1.8
Avg yellow cards
Bournemouth2.6
Nottingham Forest10.8
Avg shots
Bournemouth13
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 46% · edge +21.1 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nottingham Forest

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
17 May 2026A Manchester United2-3
10 May 2026H Newcastle1-1
04 May 2026A Chelsea3-1
24 Apr 2026A Sunderland5-0
19 Apr 2026H Burnley4-1

Bournemouth

DWWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 6D 0L
19 May 2026H Manchester City1-1
09 May 2026A Fulham1-0
03 May 2026H Crystal Palace3-0
22 Apr 2026H Leeds2-2
18 Apr 2026A Newcastle2-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 78% · edge -10.8 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Nottingham Forest wins
4Draws
6Bournemouth wins
26 Oct 2025Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest2-0
25 Jan 2025Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest5-0
17 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth1-1
04 Feb 2024Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest1-1
23 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth2-3
21 Jan 2023Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest1-1
Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 50% · edge -11.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The head-to-head sample gives context for Bournemouth to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Premier League

Nottingham Forest38
Played
Bournemouth38
Nottingham Forest1.3
Avg goals for
Bournemouth1.5
Nottingham Forest1.3
Avg goals against
Bournemouth1.4
Nottingham Forest9
Clean sheets
Bournemouth11
Market aligned with main pickBournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season data supports Bournemouth Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Bournemouth5738131874
16Nottingham Forest4438111116-3
Nottingham Forest sit in position 16, while Bournemouth sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Bournemouth Win & BTTS assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
60%Bournemouth Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nottingham Forest sit at 80% and Bournemouth sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth prediction

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Betting context

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