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Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
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Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

Friendlies Clubs | Wed 12 Aug, 19:45

Nottingham Forest v Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 15:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nottingham Forest face Bayer Leverkusen in Friendlies Clubs on Wed 12 Aug, 19:45. Forest still have Brest to face after this match before opening their Premier League campaign against Leeds United on August 22. Nottingham Forest have struggled offensively, losing three consecutive pre-season matches and failing to score in their last two.

BT4Y best bet

Bayer Leverkusen to Win to Nil

  • At 2.8, Bayer Leverkusen to Win to Nil implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • The defensive improvement is significant, but it now has to be accompanied by greater attacking output.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nottingham Forest.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Bayer Leverkusen to Win to Nil angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Bayer Leverkusen to Win to Nil sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nottingham Forest. The defensive improvement is significant, but it now has to be accompanied by greater attacking output.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Strong positive
Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 15.Visible data support
Positive
Bayer Leverkusen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
The defensive improvement is significant, but it now has.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bayer Leverkusen Win is the preferred angle because the defensive improvement is significant, but it now has to be accompanied by greater attacking output. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nottingham Forest. Their positioning will matter at both ends: Forest need enough support around Gibbs-White to progress the ball, but Leverkusen’s attacking record makes careless turnovers potentially expensive.

Main risk

Their positioning will matter at both ends: Forest need enough support around Gibbs-White to progress the ball, but Leverkusen’s attacking record makes careless turnovers potentially expensive.

Key Data Signals

Bayer Leverkusen to Win to Nil evidence

The defensive improvement is significant, but it now has to be accompanied by greater attacking output.

Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nottingham Forest.

Bayer Leverkusen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Bayer Leverkusen Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Bayer Leverkusen to Win to Nil notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nottingham Forest0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Bayer Leverkusen3.8
    Nottingham Forest1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Bayer Leverkusen0.4
    Nottingham Forest60%
    BTTS rate
    Bayer Leverkusen40%
    Nottingham Forest40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bayer Leverkusen100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 83% · edge +4.7 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Nottingham Forest and 100% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Bayer Leverkusen to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nottingham Forest

    LLLWD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 3L
    08 Aug 2026A Barcelona0-1
    08 Aug 2026A Udinese0-1
    31 Jul 2026A Sporting CP1-4
    31 Jul 2026A Portimonense2-1
    26 Jul 2026A Vitória SC1-1

    Bayer Leverkusen

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 0D 0L
    08 Aug 2026H Sevilla2-1
    01 Aug 2026H Rot-Weiß Essen3-0
    29 Jul 2026H Genk4-0
    25 Jul 2026A Kickers Offenbach3-1
    18 Jul 2026A SF Baumberg7-0
    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
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    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Nottingham Forest wins
    0Draws
    0Bayer Leverkusen wins
    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Bayer Leverkusen to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies Clubs

    Nottingham Forest9
    Played
    Bayer Leverkusen7
    Nottingham Forest1.4
    Avg goals for
    Bayer Leverkusen3.1
    Nottingham Forest1
    Avg goals against
    Bayer Leverkusen0.7
    Nottingham Forest3
    Clean sheets
    Bayer Leverkusen3
    Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Bayer Leverkusen to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    100%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nottingham Forest sit at 40% and Bayer Leverkusen sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.