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Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
v
Aston Villa crestAston Villa

UEFA Europa League | Thu 30 Apr, 20:00

Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 04:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nottingham Forest face Aston Villa in UEFA Europa League on Thu 30 Apr, 20:00. The atmosphere has repeatedly dragged them through difficult moments, while Emery’s reputation in this competition still carries enormous weight. Aston Villa have an impeccable home record in Europe with nine straight wins at Villa Park.

BT4Y best bet

Nottingham Forest Win

  • At 27/10, Nottingham Forest Win implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat tonight.
  • Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 7 for Nottingham Forest.
  • Aston Villa have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Nottingham Forest Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Nottingham Forest Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 7 for Nottingham Forest. Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat tonight.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Neutral
Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 15.Visible data support
Positive
Aston Villa have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Nottingham Forest Win is the preferred angle because rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat tonight. Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 7 for Nottingham Forest. However, for the 90-minute match result, Villa remain strong favourites due to the expectation that they must attack from the first whistle.

Main risk

However, for the 90-minute match result, Villa remain strong favourites due to the expectation that they must attack from the first whistle.

Key Data Signals

Nottingham Forest Win evidence

Rogers has been directly involved in five goals across six home European appearances, highlighting his major attacking threat.

Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 7 for Nottingham Forest.

Aston Villa have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Nottingham Forest Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Nottingham Forest Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nottingham Forest1
    Avg goals scored
    Aston Villa2.6
    Nottingham Forest1
    Avg goals conceded
    Aston Villa0.6
    Nottingham Forest60%
    BTTS rate
    Aston Villa40%
    Nottingham Forest40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Aston Villa60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 29% · edge +37.3 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nottingham Forest

    WDWLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    16 Apr 2026H FC Porto1-0
    09 Apr 2026A FC Porto1-1
    19 Mar 2026A FC Midtjylland2-1
    12 Mar 2026H FC Midtjylland0-1
    26 Feb 2026H Fenerbahçe1-2

    Aston Villa

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 109W 0D 1L
    16 Apr 2026H Bologna4-0
    09 Apr 2026A Bologna3-1
    19 Mar 2026H Lille2-0
    12 Mar 2026A Lille1-0
    29 Jan 2026H Red Bull Salzburg3-2
    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -9.4 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Aston Villa2187018
    13Nottingham Forest1484228
    UEFA Europa League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -9.4 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Nottingham Forest to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Nottingham Forest6.6
    Avg corners for
    Aston Villa3.6
    Nottingham Forest9.6
    Avg total corners
    Aston Villa6.8
    Nottingham Forest1
    Avg yellow cards
    Aston Villa0.8
    Nottingham Forest16.2
    Avg shots
    Aston Villa10.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 51% · edge -1.6 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Nottingham Forest wins
    3Draws
    5Aston Villa wins
    12 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa1-1
    03 Jan 2026Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest3-1
    05 Apr 2025Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest2-1
    14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa2-1
    24 Feb 2024Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest4-2
    05 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa2-0
    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -9.4 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Nottingham Forest to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Europa League

    Nottingham Forest16
    Played
    Aston Villa15
    Nottingham Forest1.6
    Avg goals for
    Aston Villa2.1
    Nottingham Forest1
    Avg goals against
    Aston Villa0.5
    Nottingham Forest7
    Clean sheets
    Aston Villa9
    Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -9.4 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Nottingham Forest to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    60%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    3.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nottingham Forest sit at 40% and Aston Villa sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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