Football Stats Hub

Norway crestNorway
v
Denmark crestDenmark

UEFA Nations League | Thu 24 Sep, 19:45

Norway v Denmark Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 05:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Norway face Denmark in UEFA Nations League on Thu 24 Sep, 19:45. This attacking continuity and Denmark’s defensive adjustments make Norway the most likely winner in their first League A Nations League campaign.

BT4Y match pick

Norway to win

  • At 8/11, Norway to win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 54%.
  • A 2-1 scoreline fits Norway’s strong recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive changes.
  • Norway sit 4 in the table, while Denmark sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 54% for Norway to win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Norway sit 4 in the table, while Denmark sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. A 2-1 scoreline fits Norway’s strong recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive changes.

Model chance vs price54% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Norway sit 4 in the table, while Denmark sit 2.Visible data support
Positive
A 2-1 scoreline fits Norway’s strong recent scoring.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Norway Win is the preferred angle because a 2-1 scoreline fits Norway’s strong recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive changes. Norway sit 4 in the table, while Denmark sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Their first test is a demanding one, but their recent trajectory gives them reason to attack it with .

Main risk

Their first test is a demanding one, but their recent trajectory gives them reason to attack it with .

Key Data Signals

Norway to win evidence

A 2-1 scoreline fits Norway’s strong recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive changes.

Norway sit 4 in the table, while Denmark sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Norway to win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNorway to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 59% · edge -4.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Norway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Norway to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Norway-
    Avg goals scored
    Denmark-
    Norway-
    Avg goals conceded
    Denmark-
    Norway-
    BTTS rate
    Denmark-
    Norway-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Denmark-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +9.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Norway

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Norway yet.

    Denmark

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Denmark yet.

    Market aligned with main pickNorway to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 59% · edge -4.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Norway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Norway Over 2.5
    -Denmark Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    A 2-1 scoreline fits Norway’s strong recent scoring and Denmark’s defensive changes.

    Loading deeper match data…