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Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
v
Ukraine crestUkraine

UEFA Nations League | Sat 14 Nov, 19:45

Northern Ireland v Ukraine Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 10:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Northern Ireland and Ukraine face off in a tightly contested UEFA Nations League Group 2 match, both teams boasting strong defensive records with no goals conceded in their opening fixtures. Northern Ireland leads the group with eight points, while Ukraine sits third with four. The absence of Dan Ballard disrupts Northern Ireland's backline, potentially offering Ukraine attacking opportunities. However, both sides have demonstrated tactical discipline and patience, setting the stage for a cautious encounter where defensive solidity remains paramount.

BT4Y best bet

Remains Northern Ireland’s exceptional defensive record

  • Northern Ireland has kept clean sheets in all four Nations League matches this season.
  • Ukraine has conceded only one goal in their last two fixtures, showing defensive resilience.
  • Northern Ireland averages 4 shots on target per game, indicating controlled attacking chances.
  • Ukraine’s defensive compactness and possession control limit opponent opportunities.
  • Dan Ballard’s injury may slightly weaken Northern Ireland’s defense but overall structure remains strong.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Northern Ireland’s defensive record stands out with zero goals conceded and an average of only 2.5 shots on target allowed per game, reflecting a well-organized and disciplined backline. Despite the injury to Dan Ballard, the team’s defensive compactness and recent clean sheets provide a strong foundation. Ukraine’s cautious attacking approach and limited goal output further support the likelihood of Northern Ireland maintaining defensive control. The model rates this pick positively with a 65% chance and a of 15%, indicating a solid defensive bet with standard staking recommended.

Northern Ireland Defensive SolidityZero goals conceded in four Nations League matches
Strong positive
Ukraine Attacking VolumeLow average shots on target (2.25 per game)
Positive
Dan Ballard Injury ImpactPotential defensive disruption but overall structure intact
Neutral
Recent Clean SheetsBoth teams have multiple clean sheets in recent games
Strong positive
Model Confidence77% confidence in defensive outcome
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Northern Ireland’s exceptional defensive organization and recent clean sheets make them the logical choice to maintain their defensive record against Ukraine. The data shows a disciplined backline limiting shots on target effectively, while Ukraine’s cautious approach suggests limited goal threats. This bet aligns with tactical and statistical evidence for a low-scoring, defensively controlled match.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and tactical control

“Northern Ireland’s defensive resilience, combined with Ukraine’s measured attacking style, sets the stage for a match where defensive discipline will be decisive. The injury to Ballard introduces some uncertainty, but the overall defensive structure remains robust.”

Key Data Signals

Remains Northern Ireland’s exceptional defensive record evidence

Northern Ireland has kept clean sheets in all four Nations League matches this season.

Ukraine has conceded only one goal in their last two fixtures, showing defensive resilience.

Northern Ireland averages 4 shots on target per game, indicating controlled attacking chances.

Ukraine’s defensive compactness and possession control limit opponent opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Remains Northern Ireland’s exceptional defensive record notes

  • Over the last four Nations League matches between these teams and in recent fixtures, goal totals have been low, with an average of around two goals per game.
  • The trend suggests a slow tempo and cautious attacking, favoring under 2.5 goals and reinforcing the defensive betting angle.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Northern Ireland1
Avg goals scored
Ukraine0.5
Northern Ireland0
Avg goals conceded
Ukraine1.25
Northern Ireland0%
BTTS rate
Ukraine25%
Northern Ireland25%
Over 2.5 goals
Ukraine50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown strong defensive discipline, with Northern Ireland not conceding and Ukraine conceding only once in recent matches. The low goal totals and cautious attacking patterns suggest a low likelihood of both teams scoring, reinforcing the defensive bet.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubNorthern Ireland v Ukraine predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNorthern Ireland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Northern Ireland to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ukraine Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ukraine to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 65% for Remains Northern Ireland’s exceptional defensive record sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The strongest counterpoint to this selection remains Northern Ireland’s exceptional defensive record.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Northern Ireland

DWDW
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
05 Oct 2026H Georgia0-0
02 Oct 2026A Ukraine3-0
28 Sep 2026H Hungary0-0
25 Sep 2026A Georgia1-0

Ukraine

LLDW
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
05 Oct 2026H Hungary1-2
02 Oct 2026H Northern Ireland0-3
28 Sep 2026A Georgia0-0
25 Sep 2026A Hungary1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Northern Ireland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Northern Ireland to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Ukraine Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ukraine to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Northern Ireland’s recent form is impressive, with eight points and no goals conceded, highlighting their defensive reliability. Ukraine’s form is solid but less dominant, with four points and a slightly higher goals-against average. This contrast underscores Northern Ireland’s defensive edge heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Northern Ireland Over 2.5
50%Ukraine Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last four Nations League matches between these teams and in recent fixtures, goal totals have been low, with an average of around two goals per game. The trend suggests a slow tempo and cautious attacking, favoring under 2.5 goals and reinforcing the defensive betting angle.

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