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Newport County crestNewport County
v
York crestYork

League Two | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Newport County v York Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 04:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newport County and York meet in a League Two fixture where both sides have shown moderate attacking intent but contrasting defensive solidity. York, positioned fifth, have a slightly better recent points tally and a more aggressive offensive output, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Newport's 0.8. Both teams have similar BTTS rates at 40%, indicating openness in play. The corner count is expected to be lively given York's average of 6.2 corners per match and Newport's 5.6, suggesting a contest with sustained wing play and attacking pressure from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • York averages 6.2 corners per game, Newport 5.6, combining for a high corner count.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating attacking openness that can lead to more corners.
  • Recent form shows York with 8 points and Newport with 9, reflecting competitive balance and attacking attempts.
  • Model projects a 62.3% chance for over 9.5 corners, with a positive of 4.5%.
  • Player data shows multiple attackers with high shot volumes, supporting attacking pressure and corner potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 9.5 Corners with a 62.3% probability, driven by both teams' strong corner averages (York 6.2, Newport 5.6) and attacking tendencies. York's higher shot volume and Newport's ability to win fouls and create set-piece opportunities add to corner likelihood. The positive of 4.5% suggests the current offer a reasonable return for the risk. No data limitations affect , making this a solid corner market selection based on sustained wing play and offensive pressure.

Corner AveragesYork 6.2, Newport 5.6 per game
Strong positive
Model Probability62.3% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+4.5 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge62.3% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+4.5 pts)
Positive
Attacking PressureHigh shots and fouls won indicate sustained attacks
Positive
Data QualityFull data available for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a competitive match with both Newport County and York pushing forward, generating numerous attacking plays and wing deliveries. York's higher corner average combined with Newport's resilience in set-piece situations supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners. This bet aligns well with the teams' offensive styles and recent corner trends, making it a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market analysis

“The corner market stands out here due to York's consistent wing play and Newport's ability to draw fouls and set pieces, creating a fertile environment for numerous corners.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

York averages 6.2 corners per game, Newport 5.6, combining for a high corner count.

Recent form shows York with 8 points and Newport with 9, reflecting competitive balance and attacking attempts.

Model projects a 62.3% chance for over 9.5 corners, with a positive of 4.5%.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderate scoring but not excessive.
  • While this trend focuses on goals, it suggests a tempo that allows for attacking phases and transitions, which often lead to corners, especially with both teams' attacking profiles.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newport County0.8
Avg goals scored
York1.8
Newport County0.4
Avg goals conceded
York0.8
Newport County40%
BTTS rate
York40%
Newport County20%
Over 2.5 goals
York40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, showing a moderate likelihood of goals from both sides. Newport's lower goals per game contrasts with York's higher scoring rate, suggesting York may push more offensively. This attacking intent often correlates with increased corner opportunities as defenses are tested from wide areas.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more League Two analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newport County

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Colchester1-0
03 Oct 2026A Gillingham0-0
26 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-1
19 Sep 2026A Accrington ST0-0
12 Sep 2026H Fleetwood Town1-1

York

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Northampton1-1
26 Sep 2026H Gillingham3-0
19 Sep 2026A Chesterfield0-2
12 Sep 2026H Swindon Town4-0
05 Sep 2026A Crewe1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Newport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
York Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
York to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Recent form shows Newport County earning 9 points and York 8 in their last matches, with both teams maintaining attacking efforts reflected in their corner averages. York's slightly higher corner average and Newport's resilience in defense suggest a balanced contest with frequent wing play leading to corners.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNewport County to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
York Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
York to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The 62.3% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+4.5 pts). York lead the corner sample at 6.2 per match, with Newport County lower at 5.6.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Newport County Over 2.5
40%York Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderate scoring but not excessive. While this trend focuses on goals, it suggests a tempo that allows for attacking phases and transitions, which often lead to corners, especially with both teams' attacking profiles.

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