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Newells Old Boys crestNewells Old Boys
v
Union Santa Fe crestUnion Santa Fe

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sun 01 Nov, 21:30

Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newells Old Boys face Union Santa Fe in a Liga Profesional Argentina clash where Newells hold a stronger recent form and league position. Newells have accumulated 21 points, sitting 6th, compared to Union's 17 points and 10th place. Defensively, Newells concede fewer goals (0.4 per game) than Union (1.8), suggesting a solid backline. Union's attack is more active but less efficient, while Newells rely on disciplined defense and opportunistic scoring. This match could hinge on Newells' ability to control the tempo and limit Union's attacking threats, making it a tactical battle with Newells favored to secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

Newells Old Boys to Win

  • Newells Old Boys have a 63.8% to win, offering positive value at 2.0 .
  • Newells concede only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive stability.
  • Union Santa Fe averages 1.8 goals conceded per game, vulnerable at the back.
  • Newells rank 6th with 21 points, outperforming Union's 10th place and 17 points.
  • Union's higher shots and BTTS rates contrast with Newells' more controlled, low-scoring style.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Newells Old Boys to win due to their superior defensive record and league standing. Despite Union Santa Fe's higher shot volume and attacking activity, Newells' ability to limit goals conceded (0.4 per game) and maintain a disciplined defensive shape provides a solid foundation. The 63.8% exceeds the implied 50% from the , indicating positive value. This pick benefits from Newells' recent form and home advantage signals, with no data limitations affecting .

Defensive strengthNewells concede 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
League positionNewells 6th vs Union 10th
Positive
Recent form pointsNewells 8 vs Union 4
Positive
Shot volumeUnion higher shots but less defensive solidity
Neutral
Value edge63.8% model chance vs 50% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Newells Old Boys are tactically well-positioned to control this match through defensive discipline and league momentum. Their superior defensive record and higher league standing underpin in a home win. Union Santa Fe's attacking threat is notable but unlikely to overcome Newells' structured defense, making a Newells victory the most probable outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Newells Old Boys' defensive resilience and league form create a strong foundation for victory, despite Union Santa Fe's attacking intent. The tactical balance favors Newells controlling the game and limiting Union's chances.”

Key Data Signals

Newells Old Boys to Win evidence

Newells Old Boys have a 63.8% to win, offering positive value at 2.0 .

Newells concede only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive stability.

Union Santa Fe averages 1.8 goals conceded per game, vulnerable at the back.

Newells rank 6th with 21 points, outperforming Union's 10th place and 17 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Newells Old Boys to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Newells' low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus Union's higher rate (60%) suggests this fixture may lean towards a tighter, lower-scoring game, aligning with expectations of controlled tempo and defensive focus from Newells.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newells Old Boys0.6
Avg goals scored
Union Santa Fe1
Newells Old Boys0.4
Avg goals conceded
Union Santa Fe1.8
Newells Old Boys20%
BTTS rate
Union Santa Fe60%
Newells Old Boys20%
Over 2.5 goals
Union Santa Fe60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +3.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Both teams to score is unlikely given Newells' strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game, contrasted with Union's higher BTTS rate of 60%. The match is expected to be low scoring and controlled, favoring a BTTS No outcome supported by recent defensive performances.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNewells Old Boys to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Newells Old Boys Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 63.8% for Newells Old Boys to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+13.8 pts). Newells Old Boys have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Union Santa Fe.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newells Old Boys

DWLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
24 Oct 2026A San Lorenzo0-0
19 Oct 2026H Central Cordoba de Santiago2-1
12 Oct 2026A Gimnasia M.0-1
03 Oct 2026H Lanus0-0
20 Sep 2026A Platense1-0

Union Santa Fe

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
26 Oct 2026H Estudiantes L.P.3-1
20 Oct 2026A Deportivo Riestra1-1
10 Oct 2026H Defensa Y Justicia0-2
03 Oct 2026A Boca Juniors0-3
19 Sep 2026H Independiente1-2
Market aligned with main pickNewells Old Boys to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Newells Old Boys Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Newells Old Boys have collected 8 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while Union Santa Fe has managed 4 points and concedes 1.8 goals per game. This form disparity underlines Newells' momentum and defensive reliability as key factors favoring their victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Newells Old Boys Over 2.5
60%Union Santa Fe Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderate scoring. Newells' low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus Union's higher rate (60%) suggests this fixture may lean towards a tighter, lower-scoring game, aligning with expectations of controlled tempo and defensive focus from Newells.

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