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Newcastle crestNewcastle
v
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

Friendlies Clubs | Sun 16 Aug, 16:00

Newcastle v Strasbourg Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newcastle face Strasbourg in Friendlies Clubs on Sun 16 Aug, 16:00. A year after qualifying for the Champions League through a top-five Premier League finish, Newcastle ended the following campaign 12th with 49 points. Newcastle have home pre-season wins against Saint-Etienne and Brest and have scored eight goals in five friendlies.

BT4Y best bet

Newcastle United to win

  • At 1.7, Newcastle United to win implies roughly 59%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Strasbourg have conceded 22 goals in six friendlies while Newcastle have conceded nine in five, highlighting defensive differences.
  • Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Strasbourg.
  • Newcastle have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.2 conceded per match, which helps the Newcastle United to win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Newcastle United to win sits against roughly 59% implied by the current price. Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Strasbourg. Strasbourg have conceded 22 goals in six friendlies while Newcastle have conceded nine in five, highlighting defensive differences.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 59% implied
Positive
Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Newcastle have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Strasbourg have conceded 22 goals in six friendlies.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Newcastle Win is the preferred angle because strasbourg have conceded that scoring level in six friendlies while Newcastle have conceded nine in five, highlighting defensive differences. Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Strasbourg. The concern is compounded by a limited attacking return.

Main risk

The concern is compounded by a limited attacking return.

Key Data Signals

Newcastle United to win evidence

Strasbourg have conceded 22 goals in six friendlies while Newcastle have conceded nine in five, highlighting defensive differences.

Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Strasbourg.

Newcastle have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.2 conceded per match, which helps the Newcastle Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Newcastle United to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Newcastle1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Strasbourg1
    Newcastle2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Strasbourg4
    Newcastle100%
    BTTS rate
    Strasbourg40%
    Newcastle80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Strasbourg60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Newcastle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Newcastle to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Newcastle v Strasbourg predictionplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Newcastle

    LLWLD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 3L
    15 Aug 2026H Bayer Leverkusen1-2
    12 Aug 2026H Everton1-3
    08 Aug 2026A Valencia2-1
    29 Jul 2026A Bristol City1-4
    25 Jul 2026A Gateshead1-1

    Strasbourg

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 5L
    08 Aug 2026A SC Freiburg0-2
    04 Aug 2026H SV Elversberg2-5
    01 Aug 2026A Brighton3-4
    25 Jul 2026H Blackburn0-2
    20 Jul 2026A Sporting CP0-7
    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Newcastle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Newcastle wins
    0Draws
    0Strasbourg wins
    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Newcastle to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies Clubs

    Newcastle7
    Played
    Strasbourg6
    Newcastle1.4
    Avg goals for
    Strasbourg1.2
    Newcastle1.9
    Avg goals against
    Strasbourg3.5
    Newcastle1
    Clean sheets
    Strasbourg0
    Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Newcastle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Season data supports Newcastle to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Newcastle Over 2.5
    60%Strasbourg Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Newcastle sit at 80% and Strasbourg sit at 60%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre