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Newcastle Jets crestNewcastle Jets
v
Wellington Phoenix crestWellington Phoenix

A-League | Sat 31 Oct, 04:00

Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 12:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This A-League clash features Wellington Phoenix, currently top of the table with six points, visiting Newcastle Jets who have struggled with just two points so far. Wellington Phoenix have displayed solid defensive organization, conceding only 0.5 goals per game, while Newcastle Jets have been more porous at 1.5 goals conceded per match. Wellington's attacking threat is notable, averaging two goals per game, supported by key attackers like R. Newcastle Jets have shown some offensive spark but lack defensive stability, making Wellington Phoenix the confident side in this early-season encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Wellington Phoenix to Win

  • Wellington Phoenix lead the league and have a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.5 goals per game.
  • Newcastle Jets have conceded 1.5 goals per match and scored 1.5, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Wellington Phoenix attackers R. Piper have high shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Recent form favors Wellington Phoenix with 6 points versus Newcastle Jets' 2 points.
  • Historical matches average 3.1 goals, indicating potential for open play but Wellington's defense is a key strength.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Wellington Phoenix to win with a 66.6% chance, reflecting their superior form, defensive solidity, and attacking efficiency. The price at 3.4 offers significant value given the implied chance of 29.4%. Wellington's ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining offensive pressure through players like R. Bidois supports this selection. Newcastle Jets' defensive frailties and lower points tally further enhance Wellington's chances. No data limitations affect , making this a robust value pick with standard staking advised.

Model Win Probability66.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance38.1% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+8.7 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge38.1% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+8.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormWellington Phoenix 6 points vs Newcastle Jets 2
Positive
Defensive RecordWellington concedes 0.5 goals per game vs Newcastle 1.5
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wellington Phoenix's tactical discipline and superior defensive record make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their top-table status is backed by solid recent form and efficient attacking players, which should overcome Newcastle Jets' inconsistent performances and defensive weaknesses.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Wellington Phoenix combine defensive resilience with attacking potency, particularly through R. Bidois, making them a strong contender to secure victory against a defensively vulnerable Newcastle Jets side.”

Key Data Signals

Wellington Phoenix to Win evidence

Wellington Phoenix lead the league and have a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.5 goals per game.

Newcastle Jets have conceded 1.5 goals per match and scored 1.5, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

Wellington Phoenix attackers R. Piper have high shot volumes and goal threat.

Recent form favors Wellington Phoenix with 6 points versus Newcastle Jets' 2 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Wellington Phoenix to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
  • Both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a balanced tempo with chances for goals on both sides.
  • However, Wellington's stronger defense may moderate the overall goal count, favoring a controlled but potentially decisive game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newcastle Jets1.5
Avg goals scored
Wellington Phoenix2
Newcastle Jets1.5
Avg goals conceded
Wellington Phoenix0.5
Newcastle Jets100%
BTTS rate
Wellington Phoenix50%
Newcastle Jets50%
Over 2.5 goals
Wellington Phoenix50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Goal and BTTS trends suggest a balanced outlook: Newcastle Jets have a 100% BTTS rate, indicating defensive lapses, while Wellington Phoenix have a 50% BTTS rate, reflecting more controlled defensive performances. Both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals, consistent with the average 3.1 goals per game in their head-to-heads, suggesting potential for goals but with Wellington's defense likely to limit Newcastle's scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newcastle Jets

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
24 Oct 2026H Macarthur1-1
17 Oct 2026A Central Coast Mariners2-2

Wellington Phoenix

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
25 Oct 2026H Central Coast Mariners2-0
18 Oct 2026H Melbourne Victory2-1
Market aligned with main pickWellington Phoenix to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 29% · edge +8.7 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Wellington Phoenix Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form data strongly favors Wellington Phoenix, who have secured 6 points with a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.5 goals per game. Newcastle Jets have struggled, earning just 2 points and conceding 1.5 goals per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that Wellington can exploit. This form disparity underpins the in Wellington's chances to win this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWellington Phoenix to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 29% · edge +8.7 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Wellington Phoenix Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 38.1% for Wellington Phoenix to Win sits against roughly 29.4% implied by the current price (+8.7 pts). Wellington Phoenix have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Newcastle Jets.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Newcastle Jets Over 2.5
50%Wellington Phoenix Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. Both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a balanced tempo with chances for goals on both sides. However, Wellington's stronger defense may moderate the overall goal count, favoring a controlled but potentially decisive game.

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