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New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls
v
Toronto FC crestToronto FC

Major League Soccer | Sun 18 Oct, 00:30

New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

New York Red Bulls face Toronto FC in a crucial Major League Soccer clash where playoff positioning is at stake. New York Red Bulls have shown more defensive stability and a stronger recent run, collecting 9 points compared to Toronto's 4 in their last five matches. Toronto FC's defensive frailties have been exposed with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per game, while New York Red Bulls maintain a tighter backline. The match promises tactical intensity with New York looking to capitalize on home advantage and recent momentum to secure a vital victory.

BT4Y best bet

New York Red Bulls to Win

  • New York Red Bulls have earned 9 points in their last five matches, showing better form than Toronto FC's 4 points.
  • New York Red Bulls concede fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to Toronto FC (2.4), indicating stronger defensive resilience.
  • New York Red Bulls average 17.4 shots per game with 5.8 on target, outshooting Toronto FC's 13.8 shots and 4.2 on target.
  • Toronto FC have a higher rate of matches with over 2.5 goals (80%) but also concede more, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities exploitable by New York Red Bulls.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors New York Red Bulls to win with a 71.6% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive solidity. Their higher shot volume and better goal conversion rates underpin this . Toronto FC's defensive struggles and lower points haul in recent matches further tilt the balance. The price at 2.0 offers positive value given the model's implied chance of 50%, making New York Red Bulls a compelling pick with standard stake guidance.

Recent FormNew York Red Bulls have 9 points in last 5 vs Toronto's 4
Strong positive
Defensive Record1.2 goals conceded per game vs 2.4 for Toronto FC
Strong positive
Shot Volume17.4 shots per game for New York Red Bulls vs 13.8 for Toronto FC
Positive
Price vs Model Chance65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

New York Red Bulls are tactically better positioned with stronger recent form and defensive discipline, making them the likely winners. Their ability to generate more shots and control the game tempo supports this view, while Toronto FC's defensive lapses increase their vulnerability in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“New York Red Bulls' balanced attack and disciplined defense create a clear tactical edge over Toronto FC, who have struggled to contain opponents and maintain consistency this season.”

Key Data Signals

New York Red Bulls to Win evidence

New York Red Bulls have earned 9 points in their last five matches, showing better form than Toronto FC's 4 points.

New York Red Bulls concede fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to Toronto FC (2.4), indicating stronger defensive resilience.

New York Red Bulls average 17.4 shots per game with 5.8 on target, outshooting Toronto FC's 13.8 shots and 4.2 on target.

Toronto FC have a higher rate of matches with over 2.5 goals (80%) but also concede more, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities exploitable by New York Red Bulls.

What To Watch In The Data

New York Red Bulls to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with the league's moderate scoring tempo.
  • Toronto FC's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with New York's 60%, indicating a potential for an open game but with New York's defense likely to keep the scoreline controlled.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New York Red Bulls1.4
Avg goals scored
Toronto FC1.2
New York Red Bulls1.2
Avg goals conceded
Toronto FC2.4
New York Red Bulls40%
BTTS rate
Toronto FC60%
New York Red Bulls60%
Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC80%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: Toronto FC's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals (80%), indicating open play and defensive gaps, while New York Red Bulls have a more balanced approach with a 60% over 2.5 rate. BTTS rates are moderate, suggesting a game where New York's defense could limit Toronto's scoring chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The 65% for New York Red Bulls to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Toronto FC.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New York Red Bulls

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
15 Oct 2026A DC United1-2
11 Oct 2026H San Diego4-1
01 Oct 2026H St. Louis City0-3
19 Sep 2026A New York City FC1-0
13 Sep 2026A Columbus Crew1-0

Toronto FC

DWLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
15 Oct 2026H Orlando City SC3-3
10 Oct 2026H CF Montreal2-1
27 Sep 2026A Nashville SC0-2
20 Sep 2026A St. Louis City1-3
13 Sep 2026A Orlando City SC0-3
Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
New York Red Bulls have collected 9 points in their last five matches, showcasing improved defensive organization and attacking efficiency. Toronto FC's 4 points in the same period highlight struggles to maintain consistency and defensive solidity, which could be decisive in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
80%Toronto FC Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with the league's moderate scoring tempo. Toronto FC's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with New York's 60%, indicating a potential for an open game but with New York's defense likely to keep the scoreline controlled.

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