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New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls
v
Inter Miami crestInter Miami

Major League Soccer | Sat 24 Oct, 22:30

New York Red Bulls v Inter Miami Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Inter Miami arrives in strong form, sitting second in the Major League Soccer standings with 55 points, well ahead of New York Red Bulls who are ninth with 36 points. Miami boasts a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game and a solid defense conceding just 1.0 goal per match. New York Red Bulls have struggled to find consistency, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1.6 on average. Miami's higher league position and recent momentum suggest they will control the match tempo and pose significant offensive threats, making them favorites in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Inter Miami to Win

  • Inter Miami ranks 2nd with 55 points, New York Red Bulls 9th with 36 points
  • Miami averages 2.4 goals scored and concedes only 1.0 per game
  • New York Red Bulls score 1.2 goals and concede 1.6 on average
  • Miami's recent form yields 10 points versus New York's 6 in recent matches
  • Inter Miami has a 69.9% to win, offering positive value at 1.8

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Inter Miami to win with a 69.9% chance, reflecting their superior league position, stronger recent form, and better defensive record. Miami's attack is more prolific, averaging double the goals per game compared to New York Red Bulls. The implied of 1.8 undervalue Miami's chances, creating a 14.3% . This combination of tactical control, scoring efficiency, and defensive solidity underpins the in Miami's victory. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance69.9% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance69.9% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge69.9% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormInter Miami 10 points vs New York 6
Positive
Season Goals For/AgainstMiami 2.4/1.0 vs New York 1.2/1.6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Inter Miami's superior league standing and recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their balanced approach, combining a potent attack led by key players and a disciplined defense, contrasts with New York Red Bulls' inconsistency. This tactical and statistical advantage underpins the expectation of an away win in this MLS fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Inter Miami's blend of attacking firepower and defensive resilience positions them well to overcome New York Red Bulls, whose recent form and defensive vulnerabilities leave them exposed in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Inter Miami to Win evidence

Inter Miami ranks 2nd with 55 points, New York Red Bulls 9th with 36 points

Miami averages 2.4 goals scored and concedes only 1.0 per game

New York Red Bulls score 1.2 goals and concede 1.6 on average

Miami's recent form yields 10 points versus New York's 6 in recent matches

What To Watch In The Data

Inter Miami to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3.7, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters.
  • Miami's 80% Over 2.5 rate compared to New York's 60% further supports the likelihood of multiple goals, driven by Miami's attacking prowess and New York's defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New York Red Bulls1.2
Avg goals scored
Inter Miami2.4
New York Red Bulls1.6
Avg goals conceded
Inter Miami1
New York Red Bulls40%
BTTS rate
Inter Miami60%
New York Red Bulls60%
Over 2.5 goals
Inter Miami80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 87% vs implied 94% · edge -7.4 pts
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams show contrasting offensive profiles with Miami averaging 2.4 goals per game and New York 1.2. The higher scoring rate and 60% BTTS rate for Miami suggest an open game with goal-scoring opportunities, while New York's lower BTTS rate of 40% indicates less consistent scoring. This dynamic supports a match with multiple goals and potential BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickInter Miami to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.3 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Inter Miami Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 69.9% for Inter Miami to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+14.3 pts). Inter Miami have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for New York Red Bulls.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New York Red Bulls

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
18 Oct 2026H Toronto FC0-2
15 Oct 2026A DC United1-2
11 Oct 2026H San Diego4-1
01 Oct 2026H St. Louis City0-3
19 Sep 2026A New York City FC1-0

Inter Miami

WWWLD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
18 Oct 2026A Atlanta United FC3-1
15 Oct 2026H New York City FC2-0
11 Oct 2026H DC United4-0
28 Sep 2026A Columbus Crew1-2
21 Sep 2026H San Diego2-2
Market aligned with main pickInter Miami to WinBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.3 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Inter Miami Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Recent form data shows Inter Miami securing 10 points in their last matches compared to New York Red Bulls' 6 points. Miami's higher goal output and tighter defense in this period reflect growing momentum and , reinforcing their status as favorites to win this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
80%Inter Miami Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3.7, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters. Miami's 80% Over 2.5 rate compared to New York's 60% further supports the likelihood of multiple goals, driven by Miami's attacking prowess and New York's defensive lapses.

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