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New York City FC crestNew York City FC
v
Los Angeles FC crestLos Angeles FC

Major League Soccer | Sun 18 Oct, 00:30

New York City FC v Los Angeles FC Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 22:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

New York City FC and Los Angeles FC meet in a Major League Soccer clash where defensive solidity and tactical caution are likely to shape the contest. Both teams have shown moderate scoring rates recently, with New York City FC averaging 1 goal per game and Los Angeles FC slightly higher at 1.4. Their recent matches suggest a tendency towards tighter scorelines, and with playoff implications looming, both sides may prioritize defensive organization over open attacking play. This context sets the stage for a match where goal-scoring opportunities could be limited, favoring a lower-scoring outcome.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • New York City FC averages just 1 goal per game recently, indicating limited attacking output.
  • Los Angeles FC concedes 1.6 goals per game, showing defensive resilience but some vulnerability.
  • Both teams have under 2.5 goals in 60% of recent matches combined, supporting a low-scoring trend.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 2.57 goals, suggesting moderate scoring but no high-scoring outbursts.
  • Los Angeles FC’s higher shots on target (5.6) contrast with New York City FC’s more conservative 4.2, indicating cautious attacking approaches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 55.5% probability, reflecting both teams' recent low scoring and defensive tendencies. New York City FC’s lower goal output and Los Angeles FC’s moderate defensive record combine to suggest a match unlikely to exceed two goals. The average goals in their seven recent meetings at 2.57 also support a restrained scoring environment. This pick benefits from a positive of 7.9% at of 2.1, indicating the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting .

New York City FC recent goals1.0 per game
Positive
Los Angeles FC goals conceded1.6 per game
Neutral
Head-to-head average goals2.57 goals
Positive
Model probability55.5% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+7.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge55.5% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+7.4 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given the tactical caution expected from both sides. New York City FC’s limited recent scoring and Los Angeles FC’s defensive steadiness suggest a match where chances will be at a premium. The data supports a restrained tempo and fewer goals, making this a solid tactical and statistical pick.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical rationale for low scoring

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle with both teams cautious in attack. The scoring trends and defensive profiles point towards a low-goal game, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

New York City FC averages just 1 goal per game recently, indicating limited attacking output.

Los Angeles FC concedes 1.6 goals per game, showing defensive resilience but some vulnerability.

Both teams have under 2.5 goals in 60% of recent matches combined, supporting a low-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.57, indicating moderate scoring but no frequent high-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a tempo that allows for some attacking moments but generally keeps the total goals under three, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New York City FC1
Avg goals scored
Los Angeles FC1.4
New York City FC1.4
Avg goals conceded
Los Angeles FC1.6
New York City FC40%
BTTS rate
Los Angeles FC80%
New York City FC40%
Over 2.5 goals
Los Angeles FC60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 48% · edge +7.4 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form shows New York City FC scores and concedes around 1 to 1.4 goals per game, while Los Angeles FC has a higher BTTS rate at 80%. However, the overall goal averages and cautious play suggest goals will be limited, favoring Under 2.5 rather than an open BTTS scenario.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Los Angeles FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Los Angeles FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
New York City FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 55.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.1% implied by the current price (+7.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for New York City FC and 60% for Los Angeles FC, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New York City FC

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
15 Oct 2026A Inter Miami0-2
10 Oct 2026A Chicago Fire1-2
27 Sep 2026A Atlanta United FC2-2
19 Sep 2026H New York Red Bulls0-1
13 Sep 2026A Real Salt Lake2-0

Los Angeles FC

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
15 Oct 2026H Austin3-1
11 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps1-1
27 Sep 2026A FC Dallas0-1
20 Sep 2026A San Jose Earthquakes2-2
13 Sep 2026A Sporting Kansas City1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 71% · edge +3.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Los Angeles FC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Los Angeles FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
New York City FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
New York City FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown recent form consistent with low-scoring matches: New York City FC has a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Los Angeles FC is at 60%. Their goal concessions and scoring averages reflect a balanced but cautious approach, reinforcing the likelihood of a match with fewer than three goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%New York City FC Over 2.5
60%Los Angeles FC Over 2.5
2.57H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.57, indicating moderate scoring but no frequent high-scoring games. This trend suggests a tempo that allows for some attacking moments but generally keeps the total goals under three, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.

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