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New England Revolution crestNew England Revolution
v
Chicago Fire crestChicago Fire

Major League Soccer | Sun 18 Oct, 00:30

New England Revolution v Chicago Fire Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

New England Revolution and Chicago Fire meet in a crucial late-season Major League Soccer clash with both teams fighting for playoff positioning. New England ranks third with 49 points, just ahead of fourth-placed Chicago Fire on 48 points, setting the stage for a high-stakes encounter. Both sides have shown attacking intent recently, with New England averaging 1.8 goals per game and Chicago Fire 1.4, while defensive vulnerabilities suggest an open game. Recent form data highlights New England's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and Chicago's strong 80% rate, indicating a likely high-scoring match with tactical openness and offensive urgency from both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • New England Revolution have a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Chicago Fire also show a strong 80% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting a high-scoring game.
  • Both teams average double-digit shots per game, with Chicago Fire at 14.4 and New England at 12, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.1 goals per game, suggesting a history of open, goal-rich encounters.
  • Top attackers like H. Cuypers (Chicago Fire) and P. Miller (New England) have strong goal threat and shot volumes, enhancing scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% chance against a 47.6% implied market chance, reflecting a 10.4% . Both teams' attacking stats, including high shots and shots on target, combined with defensive frailties, support an open game with multiple goals. New England's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and Chicago's 80% rate reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring match. The presence of prolific attackers like H. Miller, who generate significant shot volume and goal threat, further underpins the model's in this outcome. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
New England Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
Chicago Fire Over 2.5 Rate80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as New England Revolution and Chicago Fire both push for crucial points late in the season. New England's perfect over 2.5 goals record and Chicago's strong offensive numbers suggest multiple goals. The attacking prowess of key players and recent form data support a high-scoring encounter, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking dynamics and goal potential

“This matchup features two offensively inclined teams with defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a goal-laden contest. The attacking roles of Cuypers and Miller, combined with sustained shot pressure, make Over 3.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

New England Revolution have a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.

Chicago Fire also show a strong 80% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting a high-scoring game.

Both teams average double-digit shots per game, with Chicago Fire at 14.4 and New England at 12, indicating offensive pressure.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.1 goals per game, suggesting a history of open, goal-rich encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.1 per game, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a relevant trend to consider for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New England Revolution1.8
Avg goals scored
Chicago Fire1.4
New England Revolution2.2
Avg goals conceded
Chicago Fire1.6
New England Revolution60%
BTTS rate
Chicago Fire60%
New England Revolution100%
Over 2.5 goals
Chicago Fire80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Both teams have strong over 2.5 goals rates this season, with New England at 100% and Chicago Fire at 80%, highlighting a trend toward high-scoring matches. Their combined attacking output and history of BTTS at 60% each suggest a game where multiple goals and both teams scoring are highly plausible, supported by their offensive styles and defensive vulnerabilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 68% · edge +10.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
New England Revolution Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Chicago Fire to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
New England Revolution to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for New England Revolution and 80% for Chicago Fire, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New England Revolution

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
15 Oct 2026A FC Cincinnati3-2
11 Oct 2026H Seattle Sounders0-3
27 Sep 2026A Real Salt Lake0-3
20 Sep 2026H Orlando City SC4-2
13 Sep 2026A Chicago Fire2-1

Chicago Fire

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
15 Oct 2026H Philadelphia Union1-3
10 Oct 2026H New York City FC2-1
07 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps3-1
27 Sep 2026A Charlotte1-0
20 Sep 2026A Nashville SC0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 65% · edge +5.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
New England Revolution Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Chicago Fire to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
New England Revolution to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Chicago Fire Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Recent form data shows New England Revolution have collected 9 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate. Chicago Fire also have 9 points, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals on average, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. This form suggests both teams are involved in open, high-scoring matches, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%New England Revolution Over 2.5
80%Chicago Fire Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.1 per game, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a relevant trend to consider for this fixture.

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