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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Morocco crestMorocco

World Cup | Tue 30 Jun, 02:00

Netherlands v Morocco Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Netherlands face Morocco in World Cup on Tue 30 Jun, 02:00. The Netherlands are highly explosive going forward, scoring ten goals across three group fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

On tactical discipline over home crowd advantage

  • At 4/5, On tactical discipline over home crowd advantage implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • Their attacking output has been excellent, but they have conceded four times in three matches, with both teams scoring in every Dutch game so.
  • Netherlands show a 100% BTTS rate and Morocco show a 67% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Netherlands average 3.33 goals scored and Morocco average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for On tactical discipline over home crowd advantage sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Netherlands show a 100% BTTS rate and Morocco show a 67% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Their attacking output has been excellent, but they have conceded four times in three matches, with both teams scoring in every Dutch game so.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Strong positive
Netherlands show a 100% BTTS rate and Morocco show a.Visible data support
Positive
Netherlands average 3.33 goals scored and Morocco average 2, so.Visible data support
Positive
Their attacking output has been excellent, but they have.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because their attacking output has been excellent, but they have conceded four times in three matches, with both teams scoring in every Dutch game so far. Netherlands show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Morocco show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. However, they remain defensively generous, conceding four times and keeping zero clean sheets.

Main risk

However, they remain defensively generous, conceding four times and keeping zero clean sheets.

Key Data Signals

On tactical discipline over home crowd advantage evidence

Their attacking output has been excellent, but they have conceded four times in three matches, with both teams.

Netherlands show a 100% BTTS rate and Morocco show a 67% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Netherlands average 3.33 goals scored and Morocco average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

On tactical discipline over home crowd advantage notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Netherlands3.33
Avg goals scored
Morocco2
Netherlands1.33
Avg goals conceded
Morocco1
Netherlands100%
BTTS rate
Morocco67%
Netherlands100%
Over 2.5 goals
Morocco33%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more World Cup analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Netherlands to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Netherlands Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Morocco to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Netherlands4.33
Avg corners for
Morocco5.33
Netherlands8.67
Avg total corners
Morocco8.33
Netherlands1
Avg yellow cards
Morocco0.33
Netherlands13.33
Avg shots
Morocco16
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 55% · edge +0.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Netherlands

WWD
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
26 Jun 2026A Tunisia3-1
20 Jun 2026H Sweden5-1
14 Jun 2026H Japan2-2

Morocco

WWD
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
24 Jun 2026H Haiti4-2
19 Jun 2026A Scotland1-0
13 Jun 2026A Brazil1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 75% · edge +3.6 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Netherlands to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Netherlands Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Morocco to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Morocco Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Netherlands wins
0Draws
0Morocco wins
31 May 2017Morocco v Netherlands1-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Netherlands to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Morocco to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

World Cup

Netherlands4
Played
Morocco6
Netherlands2.8
Avg goals for
Morocco1.8
Netherlands1.5
Avg goals against
Morocco1
Netherlands0
Clean sheets
Morocco2
Best odds for this sectionNetherlands to WinBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 42% · edge +9.7 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
Netherlands Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Morocco to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Morocco Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season data supports Netherlands to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Morocco732103
1Netherlands732106
World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Netherlands Over 2.5
33%Morocco Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Netherlands sit at 100% and Morocco sit at 33% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Netherlands v Morocco prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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