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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Germany crestGermany

UEFA Nations League | Thu 24 Sep, 19:45

Netherlands v Germany Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 04:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Netherlands face Germany in UEFA Nations League on Thu 24 Sep, 19:45. Memphis Depay and Wout Weghorst have been omitted, leaving Xavi with a reshaped attacking group from the outset. Both teams have strong attacking options and defensive uncertainties, with Brobbey and Ebnoutalib in form.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Both Teams To Score YES

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 69%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 4/9, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 69%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.
Price warning

Both Teams To Score YES is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 69% while the model sits nearer 50% (-19.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +7.8 pts edge at 2.6.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 69% implied by the current price. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 69% implied
Negative
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -19.2 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Recent meetings favour Germany, but the Netherlands have been difficult to beat over 90 minutes in competitive football.

Main risk

Recent meetings favour Germany, but the Netherlands have been difficult to beat over 90 minutes in competitive football.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Netherlands-
Avg goals scored
Germany-
Netherlands-
Avg goals conceded
Germany-
Netherlands-
BTTS rate
Germany-
Netherlands-
Over 2.5 goals
Germany-
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 71% · edge -21.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price; this needs scoring involvement from both teams, not just pressure from one side.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 71% · edge -21.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Germany to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Netherlands

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Netherlands yet.

Germany

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Germany yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 64% · edge -3.1 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Germany to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Germany Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Netherlands Over 2.5
-Germany Over 2.5
3.44H2H avg goals
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

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