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NEOM crestNEOM
v
Abha crestAbha

Pro League | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

NEOM v Abha Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

NEOM and Abha meet in the Pro League with contrasting recent fortunes and tactical profiles. NEOM sits comfortably in mid-table with 16 points and a solid home record, while Abha struggles near the bottom with just 2 points. NEOM's attack, led by S. Lacazette, has shown creativity and goal threat, whereas Abha's offense, though less prolific, has enough quality to challenge defenses. Both teams have conceded goals regularly, setting up a contest where both sides are likely to find the net in a competitive, open game.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • NEOM averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.0 per game, showing balanced offense and defense.
  • Abha scores less but concedes 1.6 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • NEOM's Both Teams to Score rate is 40%, Abha's is 60%, supporting mutual scoring chances.
  • NEOM averages 12 shots per game with 3.4 on target; Abha averages 7.6 shots with 2.2 on target, reflecting attacking intent.
  • Recent head-to-head matches have averaged 3 goals, suggesting open games with scoring from both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 63.3% chance, above the market's implied 55.6%, indicating positive value. NEOM's solid attack combined with Abha's defensive frailties and their decent shot volumes support a scenario where both teams score. Abha's 60% BTTS rate and NEOM's attacking players like S. Benrahma, who averages over 3 shots and 1.24 shots on target per 90 minutes, add weight to this view. The model at 72% reflects consistent attacking signals from both sides, making BTTS a compelling pick.

Model Chance63.3% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+7.7 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance63.3% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+7.7 pts)
Positive
NEOM Attack Output1.4 goals/game, 12 shots/game
Strong positive
Abha Defensive Weakness1.6 goals conceded/game
Positive
BTTS RatesNEOM 40%, Abha 60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a sensible selection given NEOM's attacking prowess and Abha's defensive struggles. NEOM's creative players like Benrahma and Lacazette provide consistent goal threats, while Abha's tendency to concede opens the door for both sides to score. This bet aligns well with the tactical openness and recent scoring patterns of both teams.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player roles and defensive context

“The attacking roles of NEOM's Benrahma and Lacazette combined with Abha's defensive vulnerabilities create a strong case for both teams finding the net in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

NEOM averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.0 per game, showing balanced offense and defense.

Abha scores less but concedes 1.6 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

NEOM's Both Teams to Score rate is 40%, Abha's is 60%, supporting mutual scoring chances.

NEOM averages 12 shots per game with 3.4 on target; Abha averages 7.6 shots with 2.2 on target, reflecting attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3, indicating open games with scoring from both sides.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking profiles, suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 goals and supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

NEOM1.4
Avg goals scored
Abha0.8
NEOM1
Avg goals conceded
Abha1.6
NEOM40%
BTTS rate
Abha60%
NEOM20%
Over 2.5 goals
Abha60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede regularly this season. NEOM averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.0, while Abha scores 0.8 but concedes 1.6 per game. Their combined BTTS rates of 40% and 60% respectively indicate a reasonable likelihood of mutual scoring, reinforced by recent matches averaging three goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
NEOM to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
NEOM Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Abha Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Abha to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 63.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+7.7 pts). NEOM show a 40% BTTS rate and Abha show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

NEOM

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
20 Oct 2026A Al-Nassr0-1
17 Oct 2026H Al-Ettifaq0-1
10 Oct 2026A Al-Hazm1-1
13 Sep 2026H Al-Fateh4-2
07 Sep 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-0

Abha

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 6L
16 Oct 2026A Al-Qadisiyah FC1-2
13 Sep 2026A Al Diriyah0-0
09 Sep 2026A Al-Nassr1-2
04 Sep 2026H Al-Ettifaq0-1
28 Aug 2026A Al-Fayha2-3
Best odds for this sectionNEOM to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +7.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
NEOM Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Abha Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Abha to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
NEOM has collected 7 points recently with a goal scoring rate of 1.4 per game and a BTTS rate of 40%, showing moderate consistency in attack and defense. Abha's form is weaker with only 1 point and a 60% BTTS rate, indicating defensive lapses but also offensive efforts. This contrast suggests a match where both teams can score, fitting the BTTS pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%NEOM Over 2.5
60%Abha Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3, indicating open games with scoring from both sides. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking profiles, suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 goals and supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.

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