Football Stats Hub

Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife
v
Novorizontino crestNovorizontino

Serie B | Thu 08 Oct, 23:30

Nautico Recife v Novorizontino Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 01:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nautico Recife face Novorizontino in Serie B on Thu 08 Oct, 23:30. Nautico Recife come in with 5 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Novorizontino have 8 points and 1.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.85, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Nautico Recife and 60% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Nautico Recife are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Novorizontino at 1.6.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for Nautico Recife and 60% for Novorizontino show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Nautico Recife and 60% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Nautico Recife.Visible data support
Positive
Nautico Recife are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Nautico Recife and 60% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Nautico Recife and 60% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Nautico Recife are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Novorizontino at 1.6.

BTTS rates of 80% for Nautico Recife and 60% for Novorizontino show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nautico Recife1.6
Avg goals scored
Novorizontino1.6
Nautico Recife2
Avg goals conceded
Novorizontino0.8
Nautico Recife80%
BTTS rate
Novorizontino60%
Nautico Recife80%
Over 2.5 goals
Novorizontino60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +14.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 87%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +14.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nautico Recife

DWLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
03 Oct 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
26 Sep 2026H Sport Recife3-1
22 Sep 2026A Cuiaba0-3
15 Sep 2026H Operario-PR3-3
10 Sep 2026A America Mineiro1-2

Novorizontino

WDLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
02 Oct 2026H Goias3-0
25 Sep 2026H São Bernardo0-0
19 Sep 2026A Ceara1-2
13 Sep 2026H Cuiaba1-1
09 Sep 2026A Botafogo SP3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 75% · edge +8.7 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
60%Novorizontino Over 2.5
4.67H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nautico Recife sit at 80% and Novorizontino sit at 60% with the H2H average at 4.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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