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Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife
v
Goias crestGoias

Serie B | Sun 28 Jun, 22:30

Nautico Recife v Goias Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 01:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nautico Recife face Goias in Serie B on Sun 28 Jun, 22:30. Nautico Recife come in with 4 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while Goias have 5 points and 0.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Goias to Win

  • At 3.8, Goias Win implies roughly 26%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Goias have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nautico Recife.
  • Nautico Recife have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the Goias Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Nautico Recife sit 12 in the table, while Goias sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for Goias Win sits against roughly 26% implied by the current price. Goias have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nautico Recife.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 26% implied
Strong positive
Goias have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Nautico Recife have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Goias Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Goias have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nautico Recife. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Goias Win evidence

Goias have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Nautico Recife.

Nautico Recife have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the Goias Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Nautico Recife sit 12 in the table, while Goias sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Goias Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Nautico Recife7.6
    Avg corners for
    Goias6.2
    Nautico Recife10.2
    Avg total corners
    Goias10
    Nautico Recife2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Goias2.4
    Nautico Recife18.4
    Avg shots
    Goias13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 62% · edge +7.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nautico Recife1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Goias0.8
    Nautico Recife1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Goias1.8
    Nautico Recife40%
    BTTS rate
    Goias40%
    Nautico Recife40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Goias40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Nautico Recife and 40% for Goias, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 26% · edge +15.9 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Goias Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Goias to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nautico Recife

    LDLLW
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    20 Jun 2026A Vila Nova3-4
    14 Jun 2026A Novorizontino2-2
    09 Jun 2026H Fortaleza EC0-1
    31 May 2026A Sport Recife0-2
    22 May 2026H Cuiaba1-0

    Goias

    LDLDW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    21 Jun 2026H Operario-PR0-3
    14 Jun 2026A Athletic Club1-1
    11 Jun 2026H Novorizontino0-4
    30 May 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-1
    24 May 2026A Avai2-0
    Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 26% · edge +15.9 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Goias Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Nautico Recife wins
    0Draws
    5Goias wins
    06 Oct 2021Nautico Recife v Goias3-2
    10 Jul 2021Goias v Nautico Recife0-1
    07 Oct 2017Goias v Nautico Recife2-0
    20 Jun 2017Nautico Recife v Goias2-3
    08 Nov 2016Nautico Recife v Goias1-0
    16 Jul 2016Goias v Nautico Recife4-2
    Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 26% · edge +15.9 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Goias to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Nautico Recife15
    Played
    Goias15
    Nautico Recife1.4
    Avg goals for
    Goias0.9
    Nautico Recife1.3
    Avg goals against
    Goias1.4
    Nautico Recife4
    Clean sheets
    Goias5
    Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 26% · edge +15.9 pts
    3.8
    Check odds @ 3.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Goias Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Season data supports Goias to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10Goias2115636-7
    12Nautico Recife20156272
    Nautico Recife sit in position 12, while Goias sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Goias Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
    40%Goias Over 2.5
    3.13H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nautico Recife sit at 40% and Goias sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.13 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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