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Nashville SC crestNashville SC
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Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

Major League Soccer | Thu 29 Oct, 00:30

Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 09:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nashville SC, leading the Major League Soccer standings with 70 points, hosts Philadelphia Union, ranked sixth with 46 points. Nashville SC boasts a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game recently, while maintaining a potent attack averaging 2.6 goals per match. Philadelphia Union, known for their attacking prowess with 2.4 goals per game, have a higher tendency for open, high-scoring games, reflected in their 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate. This clash pits Nashville's disciplined defense and efficient attack against Philadelphia's dynamic offense, setting up a tactical battle with playoff implications.

BT4Y best bet

Nashville SC to Win

  • Nashville SC leads MLS with 70 points, showing consistent winning form.
  • Nashville SC concedes only 0.4 goals per game recently, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Philadelphia Union averages 2.4 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, highlighting attacking threat.
  • Nashville SC averages 16 shots per game with 8.2 on target, showing attacking efficiency.
  • Key Nashville players like S. Surridge (18 goals) and H. Mukhtar contribute significantly to scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Nashville SC to win based on their superior recent form, defensive strength, and home advantage. Nashville's low goals-against average (0.4) contrasts with Philadelphia's higher concession rate (1.6), suggesting Nashville's defense can contain Philadelphia's attack. The home side's effective attack, led by S. Surridge's 18 goals and 1.74 shots on target per 90 minutes, supports scoring potential. The 6.1% and 70% indicate a solid betting opportunity without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent defensive formNashville concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Attacking efficiencyS. Surridge with 18 goals and 1.74 SOT/90
Strong positive
Home advantageNashville leads MLS standings
Positive
Philadelphia's attackHigh scoring but leaky defense (1.6 goals conceded)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nashville SC's disciplined defense and clinical finishing make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their ability to limit goals conceded recently, combined with key attacking players like Surridge and Mukhtar, provides a tactical edge over Philadelphia Union, whose defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited at home.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Nashville SC's blend of defensive resilience and attacking precision positions them well to secure victory against a Philadelphia side that, while offensively capable, struggles defensively.”

Key Data Signals

Nashville SC to Win evidence

Nashville SC leads MLS with 70 points, showing consistent winning form.

Nashville SC concedes only 0.4 goals per game recently, indicating defensive solidity.

Philadelphia Union averages 2.4 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, highlighting attacking threat.

Nashville SC averages 16 shots per game with 8.2 on target, showing attacking efficiency.

What To Watch In The Data

Nashville SC to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderately scoring games.
  • Philadelphia's 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate suggests high-tempo, open matches, but Nashville's defensive discipline may temper goal totals, making the over/under market nuanced in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nashville SC2.6
Avg goals scored
Philadelphia Union2.4
Nashville SC0.4
Avg goals conceded
Philadelphia Union1.6
Nashville SC40%
BTTS rate
Philadelphia Union100%
Nashville SC40%
Over 2.5 goals
Philadelphia Union100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Philadelphia Union's 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Nashville SC's more conservative 40%, indicating Philadelphia's games often feature open play and multiple goals. Nashville's strong defense may limit scoring, suggesting a balanced goal market with potential for goals but also defensive organisation.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Major League Soccer analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +6.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Nashville SC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 63.2% for Nashville SC to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+6.1 pts). Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Philadelphia Union. The 1-1 draw prediction relies on Nashville's strong attack and Philadelphia's recent away scoring momentum, balanced by Nashville's solid defence limiting multiple goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nashville SC

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
24 Oct 2026A CF Montreal2-0
18 Oct 2026A San Jose Earthquakes1-1
15 Oct 2026H Sporting Kansas City4-0
11 Oct 2026A Austin4-1
27 Sep 2026H Toronto FC2-0

Philadelphia Union

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
25 Oct 2026H New England Revolution1-2
17 Oct 2026H Charlotte2-2
15 Oct 2026A Chicago Fire3-1
11 Oct 2026H Real Salt Lake2-1
27 Sep 2026H Orlando City SC4-2
Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +6.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Nashville SC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Nashville SC's recent form is impressive, accumulating 13 points with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game. Philadelphia Union has earned 10 points but concedes more goals (1.6), suggesting Nashville's form and defensive discipline give them an edge in controlling the match outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Nashville SC Over 2.5
100%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderately scoring games. Philadelphia's 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate suggests high-tempo, open matches, but Nashville's defensive discipline may temper goal totals, making the over/under market nuanced in this fixture.

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