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Nashville SC crestNashville SC
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New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer | Sun 01 Nov, 21:30

Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 19:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nashville SC, leading the Major League Soccer standings, face New York Red Bulls in a late-season clash where defensive solidity and tactical discipline are paramount. Nashville SC boast a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game recently, while New York Red Bulls have struggled defensively, allowing 1.6 goals per match. Both teams have moderate scoring rates, with Nashville averaging 2.2 goals and New York 1.8. The match is likely to be cautious and tightly contested, with both sides aware of the stakes and the need to avoid costly mistakes in this pivotal fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Nashville SC concede only 0.4 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form.
  • New York Red Bulls have a higher goals conceded rate at 1.6, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Both teams have moderate over 2.5 goals rates: Nashville at 40%, New York at 60%, supporting a lower scoring game.
  • Head-to-head matches average just 1.1 goals, reflecting historically tight encounters.
  • Nashville SC lead the league with 71 points, emphasizing their tactical control and risk management.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 63.3% chance, reflecting Nashville SC's robust defense and New York Red Bulls' inconsistent attacking output. Despite New York's slightly higher over 2.5 goals rate, the overall low scoring trend in their head-to-head matches and Nashville's league-leading defensive record suggest a cautious game with limited goal opportunities. The current at 2.6 offer positive value given the statistical likelihood of a low-scoring match. is high at 88%, supported by consistent defensive performances and tactical setups favoring containment.

Nashville SC Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
New York Red Bulls Defensive Weakness1.6 goals conceded per game
Negative
Head-to-Head Goal Average1.1 goals per match
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateNashville 40%, New York 60%
Neutral
Model Confidence88%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sound selection given Nashville SC's league-leading defensive record and New York Red Bulls' inconsistent attack. The tactical emphasis on control and risk aversion by Nashville SC, combined with historically low-scoring head-to-head matches, supports a cautious game with limited goal-scoring chances.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · defensive solidity and tactical caution

“Nashville SC's disciplined defensive approach and New York Red Bulls' struggle to consistently convert chances make Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Nashville SC concede only 0.4 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form.

New York Red Bulls have a higher goals conceded rate at 1.6, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.

Head-to-head matches average just 1.1 goals, reflecting historically tight encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is just 1.1, indicating a strong trend towards low-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' tactical approaches and recent defensive records, supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nashville SC2.2
Avg goals scored
New York Red Bulls1.8
Nashville SC0.4
Avg goals conceded
New York Red Bulls1.6
Nashville SC40%
BTTS rate
New York Red Bulls60%
Nashville SC40%
Over 2.5 goals
New York Red Bulls60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Goal trends indicate a low-scoring fixture, with Nashville SC conceding very few goals and New York Red Bulls showing defensive frailties but limited scoring consistency. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, but the head-to-head average of 1.1 goals suggests a tight match with few scoring opportunities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.4 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Nashville SC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
New York Red Bulls to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
The 52% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Nashville SC and 60% for New York Red Bulls, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nashville SC

DWDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
29 Oct 2026H Philadelphia Union0-0
24 Oct 2026A CF Montreal2-0
18 Oct 2026A San Jose Earthquakes1-1
15 Oct 2026H Sporting Kansas City4-0
11 Oct 2026A Austin4-1

New York Red Bulls

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
28 Oct 2026A New England Revolution2-3
24 Oct 2026H Inter Miami2-0
18 Oct 2026H Toronto FC0-2
15 Oct 2026A DC United1-2
11 Oct 2026H San Diego4-1
Best odds for this sectionNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.4 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Nashville SC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
New York Red Bulls to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5
Check odds @ 5
Recent form data shows Nashville SC with strong defensive performances, conceding only 0.4 goals per game and scoring 2.2, while New York Red Bulls concede more but score less consistently. This form supports a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals, with Nashville's control and New York's defensive lapses balanced by modest attacking output.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Nashville SC Over 2.5
60%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
1.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is just 1.1, indicating a strong trend towards low-scoring games. This trend, combined with both teams' tactical approaches and recent defensive records, supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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