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Napoli crestNapoli
v
Udinese crestUdinese

Serie A | Sun 25 Apr, 17:30

Napoli v Udinese Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 01:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Napoli face Udinese in Serie A on Sun 25 Apr, 17:30. A tight single-goal margin looks highly realistic for this closing fixture at the Maradona.

BT4Y best bet

Ze under that weight

  • At 13/5, Ze under that weight implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
  • Napoli enter the final weekend motivated to lock down second place in Serie A.
  • Napoli need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Napoli on 7 and Udinese on 3.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Napoli and 80% for Udinese.
  • Ze under that weight needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Napoli and 1.6 for Udinese are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 38% for Ze under that weight sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Napoli need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Napoli on 7 and Udinese on 3. Napoli enter the final weekend motivated to lock down second place in Serie A.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Positive
Napoli need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Napoli enter the final weekend motivated to lock down.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Napoli Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because napoli enter the final weekend motivated to lock down second place in Serie A. Napoli need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Napoli on 7 and Udinese on 3. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Ze under that weight evidence

Napoli enter the final weekend motivated to lock down second place in Serie A.

Napoli need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Napoli on 7 and Udinese on 3.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Napoli and 80% for Udinese.

Napoli Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Napoli and 1.6 for Udinese are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Ze under that weight notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Napoli1.6
Avg goals scored
Udinese1.6
Napoli1.2
Avg goals conceded
Udinese2.4
Napoli60%
BTTS rate
Udinese80%
Napoli60%
Over 2.5 goals
Udinese80%

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Napoli

WDWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Frosinone3-0
20 Sep 2026A Fiorentina1-1
13 Sep 2026H Bologna1-0
05 Sep 2026A Inter2-3
30 Aug 2026H Como1-2

Udinese

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
12 Oct 2026A Torino1-2
19 Sep 2026H Cagliari0-1
14 Sep 2026A Inter3-5
07 Sep 2026H Lazio1-2
29 Aug 2026A Monza3-2

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Napoli Over 2.5
80%Udinese Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Napoli sit at 60% and Udinese sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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