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Napoli crestNapoli
v
AS Roma crestAS Roma

Serie A | Sat 24 Oct, 17:00

Napoli v AS Roma Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 17:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features AS Roma visiting Napoli in a high-stakes encounter with Roma currently third in the table and Napoli ninth. Roma's recent form shows strong defensive solidity, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while maintaining a slightly higher scoring rate than Napoli. Napoli's home advantage is tempered by inconsistent results and a modest goal output. Roma's tactical discipline and efficient attack make them a confident pick to secure victory in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

AS Roma to Win

  • AS Roma ranks 3rd with 17 points versus Napoli's 9th and 10 points.
  • Roma concedes only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength.
  • Roma averages 1.6 goals scored per game, slightly higher than Napoli's 1.4.
  • Roma's recent form yields 11 points compared to Napoli's 7 points.
  • Roma's shot volume and goal threat from key attackers like D. Malen support their attacking edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns AS Roma a 61.3% chance to win, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive solidity, and attacking efficiency compared to Napoli. Roma's higher points tally and better defensive record underpin this . The of 2.6 offer positive value given the implied chance of 38.5%. Roma's attacking players, including D. Dybala, contribute significant goal threat and creativity, enhancing Roma's prospects in this fixture.

Recent form pointsRoma 11 vs Napoli 7
Strong positive
Defensive recordRoma concedes 0.6 goals/game vs Napoli 1.0
Strong positive
Goal scoring rateRoma 1.6 vs Napoli 1.4 goals/game
Positive
Model confidence61.3% chance for Roma win
Strong positive
Odds value edge51.4% model chance vs 36.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AS Roma's tactical discipline and recent form make them the favored side to win this Serie A fixture. Their strong defensive record and efficient attack, led by players like D. Dybala, provide a solid foundation for victory. Napoli's inconsistency and lower points tally suggest Roma have the edge in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“AS Roma's blend of defensive resilience and attacking creativity positions them well to overcome Napoli's home challenge in this Serie A contest.”

Key Data Signals

AS Roma to Win evidence

AS Roma ranks 3rd with 17 points versus Napoli's 9th and 10 points.

Roma concedes only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength.

Roma averages 1.6 goals scored per game, slightly higher than Napoli's 1.4.

Roma's recent form yields 11 points compared to Napoli's 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

AS Roma to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match is 2, indicating moderately paced games.
  • Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting balanced attacking and defensive efforts.
  • The trend points to a match with tactical discipline and selective goal opportunities rather than a high-tempo goal fest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Napoli1.4
Avg goals scored
AS Roma1.6
Napoli1
Avg goals conceded
AS Roma0.6
Napoli40%
BTTS rate
AS Roma40%
Napoli40%
Over 2.5 goals
AS Roma40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 52% · edge +6.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Both teams have a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating moderate scoring and some defensive openness. Roma's stronger defense suggests a controlled game with fewer goals conceded, while Napoli's slightly lower defensive record may allow Roma to capitalize. The goal trends support a competitive match with potential for goals but not necessarily a high-scoring shootout.

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Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Napoli

LWDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
17 Oct 2026A Venezia0-1
10 Oct 2026H Frosinone3-0
20 Sep 2026A Fiorentina1-1
13 Sep 2026H Bologna1-0
05 Sep 2026A Inter2-3

AS Roma

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Genoa2-0
11 Oct 2026A Como0-0
19 Sep 2026H Inter2-2
14 Sep 2026A Torino2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-1
Market aligned with main pickAS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Roma's recent accumulation of 11 points compared to Napoli's 7 highlights their superior momentum. Roma's defensive solidity and consistent goal scoring underpin this form advantage. Napoli's inconsistency and lower scoring rate suggest challenges in breaking down Roma's organized defense, reinforcing Roma's status as favorites in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The 51.4% for AS Roma to Win sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Napoli.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Napoli Over 2.5
40%AS Roma Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match is 2, indicating moderately paced games. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate recently, suggesting balanced attacking and defensive efforts. The trend points to a match with tactical discipline and selective goal opportunities rather than a high-tempo goal fest.

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