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Nacional crestNacional
v
Guimaraes crestGuimaraes

Primeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 18:00

Nacional v Guimaraes Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 09:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nacional face Guimaraes in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 18:00. Vitória’s volume vs Nacional’s directness: Vitória average 13 shots per league match with 49.0% possession, while Nacional average 11.6 shots with 43.3% possession, pointing to contrasting routes towards goal.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Kicks, while Nacional’s weaknesses include defending set pieces and avoiding fouling in dangerous areas

  • At 2, Nacional Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
  • That supports the expectation of Vitória pushing the game higher up the pitch, creating more sustained pressure moments, and spending longer around the away.
  • Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Nacional.
  • Nacional have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Nacional Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Nacional sit 14 in the table, while Guimaraes sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Kicks, while Nacional’s weaknesses include defending set pieces and avoiding fouling in dangerous areas is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 50% while the model sits nearer 38% (-11.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +17.2 pts edge at 2.05.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 38% for Nacional Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Nacional. That supports the expectation of Vitória pushing the game higher up the pitch, creating more sustained pressure moments, and spending longer around the away.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Negative
Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Nacional have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
That supports the expectation of Vitória pushing the game.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Nacional Win is the preferred angle because that supports the expectation of Vitória pushing the game higher up the pitch, creating more sustained pressure moments, and spending longer around the away box. Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Nacional. That gap can feel manageable in January, but it can also grow teeth quickly if you let it.

Main risk

That gap can feel manageable in January, but it can also grow teeth quickly if you let it.

Key Data Signals

Nacional Win evidence

That supports the expectation of Vitória pushing the game higher up the pitch, creating more sustained pressure moments.

Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Nacional.

Nacional have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Nacional Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Nacional sit 14 in the table, while Guimaraes sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Nacional Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nacional0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Guimaraes1
    Nacional1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Guimaraes1.4
    Nacional20%
    BTTS rate
    Guimaraes40%
    Nacional20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Guimaraes20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 49% · edge +17.2 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75

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    more Primeira Liga analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Nacional34
    Played
    Guimaraes34
    Nacional1.1
    Avg goals for
    Guimaraes1.1
    Nacional1.3
    Avg goals against
    Guimaraes1.5
    Nacional8
    Clean sheets
    Guimaraes10
    Market aligned with main pickNacional to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 50% · edge -11.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Nacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Season data supports Nacional to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nacional

    LLWWL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 6L
    11 May 2026A Santa Clara0-2
    02 May 2026H AVS1-2
    25 Apr 2026A Tondela2-0
    18 Apr 2026H Alverca1-0
    12 Apr 2026A Benfica0-2

    Guimaraes

    LLWWD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    11 May 2026H Casa Pia0-1
    04 May 2026A Sporting CP1-5
    25 Apr 2026H Rio Ave2-0
    18 Apr 2026A GIL Vicente1-0
    11 Apr 2026A AVS1-1
    Market aligned with main pickNacional to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 50% · edge -11.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Nacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNacional to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 50% · edge -11.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Nacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Nacional to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Nacional5.2
    Avg corners for
    Guimaraes4.6
    Nacional13.4
    Avg total corners
    Guimaraes9.6
    Nacional2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Guimaraes2.2
    Nacional14.2
    Avg shots
    Guimaraes12.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Nacional wins
    2Draws
    5Guimaraes wins
    02 Jan 2026Guimaraes v Nacional2-1
    03 May 2025Nacional v Guimaraes1-2
    23 Dec 2024Guimaraes v Nacional2-2
    26 Apr 2021Nacional v Guimaraes1-0
    21 Jan 2021Guimaraes v Nacional3-1
    05 May 2019Guimaraes v Nacional2-2
    Market aligned with main pickNacional to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 38% vs implied 50% · edge -11.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Nacional to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Guimaraes423412616-12
    14Nacional34349718-8
    Nacional sit in position 14, while Guimaraes sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Nacional Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Nacional Over 2.5
    20%Guimaraes Over 2.5
    3.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nacional sit at 20% and Guimaraes sit at 20% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Nacional v Guimaraes prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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