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Nacionalv
GuimaraesPrimeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 18:00
Nacional v Guimaraes Stats
BT4Y best bet
Under 2.5 Goals
- At 2.05, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 49% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 66%, so the current line is showing a +17.2-point value edge.
- Nacional are at 20% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Guimaraes are at 20%, and the H2H goal average is 3.1.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Nacional have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Guimaraes have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 2.05, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 28% · edge +17.9 pts
3.6
Bet HERE @ 3.6Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
20%Nacional Over 2.5
20%Guimaraes Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Nacional
LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 recordLast 103W 1D 6L
11 May 2026A Santa Clara0-2
02 May 2026H AVS1-2
25 Apr 2026A Tondela2-0
18 Apr 2026H Alverca1-0
12 Apr 2026A Benfica0-2
Guimaraes
LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 103W 2D 5L
11 May 2026H Casa Pia0-1
04 May 2026A Sporting CP1-5
25 Apr 2026H Rio Ave2-0
18 Apr 2026A GIL Vicente1-0
11 Apr 2026A AVS1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +7.5 pts
1.5
Bet HERE @ 1.5Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Nacional0.8
Avg goals scoredGuimaraes1
Nacional1.2
Avg goals concededGuimaraes1.4
Nacional20%
BTTS rateGuimaraes40%
Nacional20%
Over 2.5 goalsGuimaraes20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 49% · edge +17.2 pts
2.05
Bet HERE @ 2.05Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
3Nacional wins
2Draws
5Guimaraes wins
02 Jan 2026Guimaraes v Nacional2-1
03 May 2025Nacional v Guimaraes1-2
23 Dec 2024Guimaraes v Nacional2-2
26 Apr 2021Nacional v Guimaraes1-0
21 Jan 2021Guimaraes v Nacional3-1
05 May 2019Guimaraes v Nacional2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 28% · edge +17.9 pts
3.6
Bet HERE @ 3.6Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Nacional5.2
Avg corners forGuimaraes4.6
Nacional13.4
Avg total cornersGuimaraes9.6
Nacional2.8
Avg yellow cardsGuimaraes2.2
Nacional14.2
Avg shotsGuimaraes12.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Bet HERE @ 1.73Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
Daniel Júnior To Assist / Key Pass AngleDaniel Júnior · 1 assists · 2.15 key passes/90
67/100
Bet HERE
C. RamírezNacional · Attacker
Goal threat78/100
Shots /902.6
SOT /901.35
GustavoGuimaraes · Attacker
Goal threat57/100
Shots /902.42
SOT /900.85
SamuGuimaraes · Midfielder
Goal threat54/100
Shots /901.65
SOT /900.83
Daniel JúniorNacional · Midfielder
Goal threat33/100
Shots /901.55
SOT /901.08
A. NdoyeGuimaraes · Attacker
Goal threat50/100
Shots /902.64
SOT /900.94
Vando FélixGuimaraes · Midfielder
Goal threat4/100
Shots /900.26
SOT /900
Tiago SilvaGuimaraes · Midfielder
Goal threat32/100
Shots /901.57
SOT /900.63
UlissesNacional · Defender
Goal threat9/100
Shots /900.4
SOT /900.4
Season team stats
Primeira Liga
Nacional33
PlayedGuimaraes33
Nacional1.1
Avg goals forGuimaraes1.2
Nacional1.4
Avg goals againstGuimaraes1.5
Nacional7
Clean sheetsGuimaraes10
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 28% · edge +17.9 pts
3.6
Bet HERE @ 3.6Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Guimaraes | 42 | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -10 |
| 14 | Nacional | 31 | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -10 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
