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Monaco crestMonaco
v
Toulouse crestToulouse

Ligue 1 | Sat 10 Oct, 19:45

Monaco v Toulouse Stats

Data last updated: Thu 12 Nov 2026, 09:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monaco face Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Sat 10 Oct, 19:45. Filipe Luis has made an impressive start in the Principality, guiding Monaco through their opening five league matches unbeaten. Monaco's unbeaten start and strong defence provide a solid base for victory.

BT4Y best bet

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score

  • At 15/8, Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.
  • Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Monaco on 13 and Toulouse on 5.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Monaco and 60% for Toulouse.
  • Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Monaco and 1.4 for Toulouse are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 47% for Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Monaco on 13 and Toulouse on 5. The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Positive
Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Monaco Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because the visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case. Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Monaco on 13 and Toulouse on 5. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

The visitors' recent attacking improvement adds to this case.

Monaco need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Monaco on 13 and Toulouse on 5.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Monaco and 60% for Toulouse.

Monaco Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.6 for Monaco and 1.4 for Toulouse are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Monaco to win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monaco1.6
Avg goals scored
Toulouse1.4
Monaco0.6
Avg goals conceded
Toulouse1.8
Monaco60%
BTTS rate
Toulouse60%
Monaco40%
Over 2.5 goals
Toulouse60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsMonaco v Toulouse predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monaco

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
18 Sep 2026H Lens2-1
12 Sep 2026A Strasbourg1-1
04 Sep 2026A Paris Saint Germain2-1
30 Aug 2026H Marseille2-0
23 Aug 2026A Le Havre1-0

Toulouse

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Le Havre3-2
12 Sep 2026A Lorient2-2
03 Sep 2026H Lille0-1
29 Aug 2026A Stade Brestois 292-2
22 Aug 2026H Lyon0-2
Market aligned with main pickMonaco to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Monaco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMonaco to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Monaco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Monaco to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Monaco Over 2.5
60%Toulouse Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Monaco sit at 40% and Toulouse sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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