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Monaco crestMonaco
v
Toulouse crestToulouse

Ligue 1 | Sat 10 Oct, 19:45

Monaco v Toulouse Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monaco visits Toulouse in a Ligue 1 clash charged with high stakes and contrasting fortunes. Toulouse struggles defensively, conceding 12 goals in their last four matches, while Monaco pursues European qualification, buoyed by Folarin Balogun's remarkable scoring streak. Despite Monaco's recent dip in momentum, their attacking firepower and historical success at Toulouse's ground set the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter. Toulouse's home resilience and scoring ability add intrigue, promising a tense battle where defensive frailties and offensive urgency collide under mounting pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Monaco Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Toulouse conceded 3+ goals in four consecutive matches, showing defensive fragility
  • Monaco's Folarin Balogun has scored in eight straight games, leading their attack
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season
  • Monaco aims to secure European qualification with a strong away performance

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Monaco to win combined with over 2.5 goals, reflecting Monaco's potent attack led by Balogun and Toulouse's defensive vulnerabilities. The implied chance of 12.5% contrasts with a near 39%, signaling a significant . Both teams' tendencies to score and concede, combined with recent form and tactical dynamics, support an open game with multiple goals. The data quality is solid for both sides, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Chance38.6% model chance vs 12.5% implied (+26.1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance38.6% model chance vs 12.5% implied (+26.1 pts)
Strong positive
Toulouse Defensive RecordConceded 12 goals in last 4 matches
Strong positive
Balogun Scoring Streak8 consecutive matches with goals
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Monaco's attacking consistency, spearheaded by Balogun, combined with Toulouse's defensive struggles, makes a Monaco win with multiple goals highly plausible. The visitors' urgency to secure European qualification should drive them to capitalize on Toulouse's vulnerabilities, while the hosts' scoring ability ensures the match remains competitive and open.

Main risk

Will they play with caution, or double down on attacking intent?

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal expectations

“Monaco's clinical striker form and Toulouse's defensive lapses create a compelling scenario for a high-scoring Monaco victory, blending tactical urgency with statistical trends.”

Key Data Signals

Monaco Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Toulouse conceded 3+ goals in four consecutive matches, showing defensive fragility

Monaco's Folarin Balogun has scored in eight straight games, leading their attack

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season

Monaco aims to secure European qualification with a strong away performance

What To Watch In The Data

Monaco Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a high frequency of over 2.5 goals, driven by Toulouse's defensive lapses and Monaco's attacking consistency.
  • This trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monaco1.6
Avg goals scored
Toulouse1.4
Monaco0.6
Avg goals conceded
Toulouse1.8
Monaco60%
BTTS rate
Toulouse60%
Monaco40%
Over 2.5 goals
Toulouse60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, underscoring a trend toward open, attacking games. Toulouse's recent defensive collapse and Monaco's consistent scoring, especially through Balogun, suggest both sides will find the net, supporting a BTTS and over 2.5 goals scenario.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsMonaco v Toulouse predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monaco

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
18 Sep 2026H Lens2-1
12 Sep 2026A Strasbourg1-1
04 Sep 2026A Paris Saint Germain2-1
30 Aug 2026H Marseille2-0
23 Aug 2026A Le Havre1-0

Toulouse

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Le Havre3-2
12 Sep 2026A Lorient2-2
03 Sep 2026H Lille0-1
29 Aug 2026A Stade Brestois 292-2
22 Aug 2026H Lyon0-2
Market aligned with main pickMonaco to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Monaco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Monaco's recent form shows 13 points with 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game, though a slight momentum dip is evident from just one point in the last two matches. Toulouse's form is weaker with 5 points, 1.4 goals scored but 1.8 conceded per game, reflecting defensive instability. These trends suggest Monaco's attack can exploit Toulouse's frailties, supporting the over 2.5 goals and away win forecast.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMonaco to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Monaco Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 38.6% for Monaco Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 12.5% implied by the current price (+26.1 pts). However, they consistently score at home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Monaco Over 2.5
60%Toulouse Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Both teams' recent matches show a high frequency of over 2.5 goals, driven by Toulouse's defensive lapses and Monaco's attacking consistency. This trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities.

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