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Molde crestMolde
v
Start crestStart

Eliteserien | Sun 18 Oct, 16:00

Molde v Start Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Molde hosts Start in an Eliteserien clash where attacking intent and recent goal-scoring form set the stage for an open encounter. Molde ranks fourth with a strong offensive output, averaging 2.8 goals per game, while Start sits at the bottom but has shown occasional goal threat. Both teams have tendencies toward matches with multiple goals, and Molde's home performances often feature high tempo and sustained pressure. The fixture promises attacking football with Molde pushing to secure European qualification and Start fighting to climb from the relegation zone, making goal action likely.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Molde averages 2.8 goals per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Start concedes 2 goals per game but still sees 60% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • H2H average goals stand at 3.71 across seven meetings, indicating open games.
  • Molde and Start both average nearly 20 shots per game, suggesting offensive pressure.
  • Molde's attackers like Trent Toure Kone Doherty and K. Lonebu contribute high shot volumes and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 57.9% chance, supported by Molde's strong attacking numbers and Start's defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have high shot volumes and a history of open matches with an average of 3.71 goals in head-to-head clashes. Molde's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Start's 60% rate reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The current at 1.83 offer a small positive , making this an attractive bet based on attacking tempo and goal frequency.

Molde's goals per game2.8
Strong positive
Start's goals conceded per game2.0
Positive
H2H average goals3.71
Strong positive
Over 2.5 goals rate Molde80%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 goals rate Start60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Molde pushes for European qualification and Start battles relegation. Molde's potent offense combined with Start's defensive fragility suggests a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical selection. The teams' recent form and head-to-head history support the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“Molde's dynamic attackers and Start's defensive struggles create fertile ground for a goal-laden encounter. The statistical trends and player roles indicate a match where goals will flow, rewarding those backing Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Molde averages 2.8 goals per game with 80% of matches over 2.5 goals.

Start concedes 2 goals per game but still sees 60% over 2.5 goals rate.

H2H average goals stand at 3.71 across seven meetings, indicating open games.

Molde and Start both average nearly 20 shots per game, suggesting offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.71, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters.
  • Recent matches show a tempo that favors open play and transitions, with both teams contributing to goal opportunities.
  • This trend panel confirms the suitability of an Over 2.5 and by extension Over 3.5 Goals market for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Molde2.8
Avg goals scored
Start1.6
Molde1.6
Avg goals conceded
Start2
Molde80%
BTTS rate
Start40%
Molde80%
Over 2.5 goals
Start60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Molde's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Start's 60% rate highlight frequent goal-rich matches. The head-to-head average of 3.71 goals over seven games further confirms a pattern of open play and goal opportunities. While Start's BTTS rate is lower, Molde's consistent scoring ensures multiple goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals angle.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Start Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Molde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Molde to WinBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Start to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+3.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Molde and 60% for Start, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Molde

DLWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
11 Oct 2026A Lillestrom2-2
19 Sep 2026H Aalesund1-2
13 Sep 2026A Ham-Kam5-1
06 Sep 2026H KFUM Oslo2-0
30 Aug 2026A Valerenga4-3

Start

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
11 Oct 2026H Ham-Kam2-4
20 Sep 2026A Sandefjord0-3
13 Sep 2026H Brann2-0
04 Sep 2026A Aalesund0-2
30 Aug 2026H KFUM Oslo4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 31% · edge +14.2 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Start Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Molde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Molde to WinBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Start to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Molde has accumulated 10 points recently with an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting their attacking consistency. Start's 6 points and 60% over 2.5 rate show some goal involvement despite defensive weaknesses. This recent form data aligns with expectations for a high-scoring game, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Molde Over 2.5
60%Start Over 2.5
3.71H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.71, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters. Recent matches show a tempo that favors open play and transitions, with both teams contributing to goal opportunities. This trend panel confirms the suitability of an Over 2.5 and by extension Over 3.5 Goals market for this fixture.

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