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Molde crestMolde
v
Sandefjord crestSandefjord

Eliteserien | Sat 30 May, 15:00

Molde v Sandefjord Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 04:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Molde face Sandefjord in Eliteserien on Sat 30 May, 15:00. Emil Breivik has scored six league goals in just 10 matches, making the Molde captain one of the division's most productive players. The visitors have scored three goals in three of their last four successive victories over Molde.

BT4Y best bet

Gives Sandefjord a one-goal advantage before the match starts

  • At 13/1, Sandefjord Win implies roughly 7%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Molde's attacking output of 1.6 goals per game contrasts against Sandefjord's organized defensive strategy of conceding only 1.1 per match.
  • Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sandefjord.
  • Molde have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Sandefjord Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Molde sit 5 in the table, while Sandefjord sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for Sandefjord Win sits against roughly 7% implied by the current price. Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sandefjord. Molde's attacking output of that scoring level per game contrasts against Sandefjord's organized defensive strategy of conceding only 1.1 per match.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 7% implied
Strong positive
Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Molde have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Molde's attacking output of 1.6 goals per game contrasts.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sandefjord Win is the preferred angle because molde's attacking output of that scoring level per game contrasts against Sandefjord's organized defensive strategy of conceding only 1.1 per match. Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sandefjord. Molde average significantly more goals than Sandefjord, but the visitors have often demonstrated that efficiency can be just as valuable as volume.

Main risk

Molde average significantly more goals than Sandefjord, but the visitors have often demonstrated that efficiency can be just as valuable as volume.

Key Data Signals

Sandefjord Win evidence

Molde's attacking output of 1.6 goals per game contrasts against Sandefjord's organized defensive strategy of conceding only 1.

Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sandefjord.

Molde have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Sandefjord Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Molde sit 5 in the table, while Sandefjord sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sandefjord Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Molde1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Sandefjord1.2
    Molde1
    Avg goals conceded
    Sandefjord1.4
    Molde40%
    BTTS rate
    Sandefjord60%
    Molde40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sandefjord40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +12.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Molde

    LWLWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    25 May 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF1-2
    16 May 2026H Kristiansund BK1-0
    10 May 2026A Tromso0-2
    04 May 2026A Bodo/Glimt1-0
    26 Apr 2026H Valerenga5-1

    Sandefjord

    DLWWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    25 May 2026H Fredrikstad1-1
    16 May 2026A Lillestrom1-3
    10 May 2026H Kristiansund BK2-0
    03 May 2026H Aalesund1-0
    26 Apr 2026A Tromso1-3
    Market aligned with main pickSandefjord to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 20% · edge +7.6 pts
    5
    Check odds @ 5
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    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.28
    Check odds @ 2.28
    Sandefjord Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Molde19116145
    8Sandefjord1411425-3
    Molde sit in position 5, while Sandefjord sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Sandefjord Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSandefjord to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 20% · edge +7.6 pts
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Sandefjord Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Sandefjord to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Molde3.6
    Avg corners for
    Sandefjord5.8
    Molde9.4
    Avg total corners
    Sandefjord11.2
    Molde1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Sandefjord1.4
    Molde12.2
    Avg shots
    Sandefjord13.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Molde wins
    1Draws
    4Sandefjord wins
    19 Oct 2025Molde v Sandefjord1-3
    06 Apr 2025Sandefjord v Molde3-0
    19 Oct 2024Molde v Sandefjord0-1
    05 May 2024Sandefjord v Molde3-1
    12 Aug 2023Sandefjord v Molde2-2
    29 May 2023Molde v Sandefjord5-0
    Market aligned with main pickSandefjord to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 20% · edge +7.6 pts
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Sandefjord to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Eliteserien

    Molde11
    Played
    Sandefjord11
    Molde1.6
    Avg goals for
    Sandefjord0.9
    Molde1.2
    Avg goals against
    Sandefjord1.2
    Molde3
    Clean sheets
    Sandefjord4
    Market aligned with main pickSandefjord to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 20% · edge +7.6 pts
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Load more odds for this section
    Sandefjord Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Season data supports Sandefjord to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Molde Over 2.5
    40%Sandefjord Over 2.5
    3.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Molde sit at 40% and Sandefjord sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.