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Molde crestMolde
v
Fredrikstad crestFredrikstad

Eliteserien | Sun 25 Oct, 18:15

Molde v Fredrikstad Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Molde, sitting third in the Eliteserien, face eighth-placed Fredrikstad in a fixture where the visitors seek to avoid defeat and secure crucial points. Molde's recent form shows strong attacking output but some defensive vulnerability, while Fredrikstad have struggled for wins but remain competitive. The tactical battle will hinge on Fredrikstad's resilience and ability to absorb pressure, aiming to capitalize on counter-attacks. The match carries significance for Fredrikstad's survival hopes, adding intensity to their defensive discipline and transition play.

BT4Y best bet

Fredrikstad Draw No Bet

  • Fredrikstad offers 13.8% on Draw No Bet at 3.55
  • Molde averages 3.2 goals scored per game but concedes 1.2, showing defensive gaps
  • Fredrikstad's BTTS rate is 100%, indicating they often score even when under pressure
  • Molde's average shots (21.4) and shots on target (9) surpass Fredrikstad's (13.2 and 3.2 respectively)
  • Recent form favors Molde but Fredrikstad's defensive resolve and counter threat justify the bet

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies significant value in Fredrikstad Draw No Bet at 3.55 , with a 42% chance of Fredrikstad avoiding defeat versus an implied market chance of 28.2%. Despite Molde's superior attack and form, Fredrikstad's resilience and ability to score in most matches, combined with Molde's defensive concessions, create a plausible scenario for a draw or away non-loss. The model is moderate at 57%, reflecting some uncertainty but clear value in the price. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model chance vs Implied chance42% model chance vs 27% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Fredrikstad BTTS rate100%
Positive
Molde defensive concessions1.2 goals per game
Positive
Recent form gapMolde stronger but not dominant
Neutral
Market odds value edge42% model chance vs 27% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fredrikstad Draw No Bet is a tactical choice reflecting Fredrikstad's defensive resilience and ability to score, which counters Molde's attacking threat. The data shows Molde's control but also defensive vulnerability, making a Fredrikstad non-loss a reasonable expectation in a competitive fixture where the visitors will fight hard to avoid defeat.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical resilience

“Fredrikstad's defensive discipline and consistent scoring record make the Draw No Bet a compelling option against Molde's potent but occasionally vulnerable attack.”

Key Data Signals

Fredrikstad Draw No Bet evidence

Fredrikstad offers 13.8% on Draw No Bet at 3.55

Molde averages 3.2 goals scored per game but concedes 1.2, showing defensive gaps

Fredrikstad's BTTS rate is 100%, indicating they often score even when under pressure

Molde's average shots (21.4) and shots on target (9) surpass Fredrikstad's (13.2 and 3.2 respectively)

What To Watch In The Data

Fredrikstad Draw No Bet notes

  • The last five matches show an Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80% for Molde and 40% for Fredrikstad, with an average of 3.2 goals in their five meetings.
  • This trend suggests a match with goal-scoring opportunities, influenced by Molde's attacking style and Fredrikstad's occasional defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Molde3.2
Avg goals scored
Fredrikstad1.2
Molde1.2
Avg goals conceded
Fredrikstad1.6
Molde80%
BTTS rate
Fredrikstad100%
Molde80%
Over 2.5 goals
Fredrikstad40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Molde averages 3.2 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 rate and 80% BTTS, while Fredrikstad scores less but has a 100% BTTS rate, indicating both teams often find the net. This suggests an open game with goal-scoring chances for both sides, supporting the likelihood of a competitive match with goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Fredrikstad to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
The 42% for Fredrikstad Draw No Bet sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Fredrikstad.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Molde

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
18 Oct 2026H Start6-1
11 Oct 2026A Lillestrom2-2
19 Sep 2026H Aalesund1-2
13 Sep 2026A Ham-Kam5-1
06 Sep 2026H KFUM Oslo2-0

Fredrikstad

LDDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
17 Oct 2026A Viking2-3
11 Oct 2026H Tromso1-1
20 Sep 2026A Valerenga1-1
13 Sep 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF1-1
04 Sep 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Fredrikstad to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Molde's recent form shows 10 points with strong goal-scoring but some defensive concessions, while Fredrikstad has 3 points and lower scoring output. Despite form disparity, Fredrikstad's resilience and ability to score in matches suggest they can avoid defeat, justifying the Draw No Bet selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Molde Over 2.5
40%Fredrikstad Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last five matches show an Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80% for Molde and 40% for Fredrikstad, with an average of 3.2 goals in their five meetings. This trend suggests a match with goal-scoring opportunities, influenced by Molde's attacking style and Fredrikstad's occasional defensive vulnerabilities.

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