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Modena crestModena
v
Mantova crestMantova

Serie B | Sat 31 Oct, 14:00

Modena v Mantova Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Modena hosts Mantova in a Serie B clash where both teams are positioned near the top of the table, with Modena second and Mantova fourth. Modena's recent form is strong, accumulating 12 points with a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game, while Mantova has been less prolific, scoring 1.2 goals per game and gathering 7 points recently. Modena's offensive style and home advantage set a competitive tone, with Mantova expected to challenge but likely to face difficulties containing Modena's attacking threats. The fixture promises tactical intensity with Modena favored to capitalize on their scoring momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Modena to Win

  • Modena ranks 2nd with 19 points, Mantova 4th with 17 points, showing close competition.
  • Modena averages 2.2 goals per game and has a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate recently.
  • Mantova scores less frequently, averaging 1.2 goals and a 40% BTTS rate.
  • Modena's attackers, especially A. Montevago, show high shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Modena concedes fewer goals on average (1.2) compared to Mantova (1.4), indicating stronger defense.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Modena to win with a 72.6% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating clear value. Modena's superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and strong home standing underpin this . Key attackers like A. Montevago provide consistent offensive pressure, supported by Modena's solid defensive record. The team's ability to create numerous shots and maintain high goal involvement supports the likelihood of a home victory. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a strong football and statistical choice.

Model Win Probability72.6%
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Modena)2.2 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Mantova)1.2 per game
Positive
Key Player Offensive OutputBelotti 6 goals, Montevago 8.63 shots/90
Strong positive
Defensive Concession RateModena 1.2 goals against per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Modena's consistent scoring and superior recent form make them the clear favorite to win this fixture. Their attacking duo, led by Belotti and Montevago, offers a potent threat that Mantova's defense may struggle to contain. The data supports Modena's advantage both offensively and defensively, suggesting a home victory is the most probable outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Modena to Win

“Modena's offensive consistency and home advantage create a compelling case for their victory, especially given Mantova's comparatively lower scoring and defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Modena to Win evidence

Modena ranks 2nd with 19 points, Mantova 4th with 17 points, showing close competition.

Modena averages 2.2 goals per game and has a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate recently.

Mantova scores less frequently, averaging 1.2 goals and a 40% BTTS rate.

Modena's attackers, especially A. Montevago, show high shot volumes and goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Modena to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a moderately scoring fixture historically.
  • Modena's recent 100% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Mantova's 40%, suggesting this match could see more goals than the historical average due to Modena's attacking emphasis and home advantage.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Modena2.2
Avg goals scored
Mantova1.2
Modena1.2
Avg goals conceded
Mantova1.4
Modena80%
BTTS rate
Mantova40%
Modena100%
Over 2.5 goals
Mantova40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 77%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Modena's recent matches have seen a 100% rate of Over 2.5 goals and an 80% BTTS rate, highlighting their attacking openness and defensive vulnerabilities. Mantova's lower Over 2.5 (40%) and BTTS (40%) rates suggest a more cautious approach, but Modena's offensive firepower likely pushes this fixture towards multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickModena to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Modena Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 70.6% for Modena to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Modena have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Mantova.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Modena

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 2L
27 Oct 2026A Vicenza Virtus2-1
24 Oct 2026H Cesena3-0
17 Oct 2026A Carrarese1-2
11 Oct 2026H Hellas Verona3-2
20 Sep 2026H Empoli2-1

Mantova

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 2L
27 Oct 2026H Cremonese0-2
24 Oct 2026A Virtus Entella1-0
17 Oct 2026H Palermo0-2
11 Oct 2026A Catanzaro3-1
20 Sep 2026H Pisa2-2
Market aligned with main pickModena to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Modena Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Modena's recent form is strong, with 12 points gained and an average of 2.2 goals scored per game, reflecting a potent attack and effective game management. Mantova's 7 points and 1.2 goals per game indicate less consistency and lower offensive output. This form disparity supports Modena's likelihood to control the match and secure victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Modena Over 2.5
40%Mantova Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a moderately scoring fixture historically. Modena's recent 100% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Mantova's 40%, suggesting this match could see more goals than the historical average due to Modena's attacking emphasis and home advantage.

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