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Mirassol crestMirassol
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

Serie A | Sat 24 Oct, 20:30

Mirassol v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol and Sao Paulo meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have demonstrated cautious attacking approaches recently. Mirassol averages 1.4 goals per game with a strong defensive record conceding just 0.8 goals, while Sao Paulo scores slightly less at 1.0 goal per match and concedes 1.0. Recent form shows low scoring trends, with Mirassol hitting over 2.5 goals in only 20% of matches and Sao Paulo in 40%. This suggests a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, emphasizing defensive solidity and measured attacks.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Mirassol concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating solid defense.
  • Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates: 20% for Mirassol, 40% for Sao Paulo.
  • Recent form shows cautious attacking output with Mirassol scoring 1.4 and Sao Paulo 1.0 goals per game.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3, but recent matches have been tighter defensively.
  • Shots on target averages are moderate, supporting a controlled tempo and fewer clear chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 63.2% probability, reflecting the defensive strengths and low scoring rates of both teams. Mirassol's disciplined defense and Sao Paulo's moderate attacking output combine to suggest a match with limited goal-scoring. The at 1.75 offer positive value against the implied 57.1% chance, making this a well-supported selection. The consistent low over 2.5 goals rates and recent form data reinforce the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring encounter.

Mirassol Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate20% Mirassol, 40% Sao Paulo
Positive
Model Probability63.2% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+6.1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance63.2% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+6.1 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given the defensive discipline shown by Mirassol and Sao Paulo's moderate scoring record. The tactical setup and recent form data suggest a controlled game with limited clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture is shaping up as a tactical contest where both teams prioritize defensive organization over aggressive attacking play, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical and data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Mirassol concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating solid defense.

Recent form shows cautious attacking output with Mirassol scoring 1.4 and Sao Paulo 1.0 goals per game.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3, but recent matches have been tighter defensively.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Analysis of the last 10 head-to-head matches shows an average of 3 goals per game, but recent encounters have been more defensively balanced.
  • The trend over recent matches points to a slower tempo and fewer goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals trend and supporting the expectation of a controlled, low-scoring fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1.4
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo1
Mirassol0.8
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo1
Mirassol40%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo40%
Mirassol20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +6.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams have modest goal-scoring rates and a combined BTTS rate of 40%, indicating a tendency for matches without both teams scoring. Mirassol's strong defense and Sao Paulo's moderate attack suggest goals will be limited and possibly one-sided, favoring a controlled goals environment rather than an open, high-scoring game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
17 Oct 2026H Internacional2-0
11 Oct 2026A Bahia0-1
07 Oct 2026A RB Bragantino1-1
19 Sep 2026H Botafogo2-0
13 Sep 2026H Vitoria2-2

Sao Paulo

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
18 Oct 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
11 Oct 2026H Vitoria2-1
08 Oct 2026A Cruzeiro0-2
03 Oct 2026H Santos1-2
20 Sep 2026H Internacional1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 62% · edge +9.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Sao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows Mirassol scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.8 per game, while Sao Paulo scores 1.0 and concedes 1.0. Both teams have low over 2.5 goals occurrence, 20% and 40% respectively, reinforcing a trend of cautious play and limited goal-scoring in their latest matches, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Sao Paulo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 63.2% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+6.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Mirassol and 40% for Sao Paulo, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Mirassol Over 2.5
40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last 10 head-to-head matches shows an average of 3 goals per game, but recent encounters have been more defensively balanced. The trend over recent matches points to a slower tempo and fewer goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals trend and supporting the expectation of a controlled, low-scoring fixture.

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