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Mirassol crestMirassol
v
Fluminense crestFluminense

Serie A | Sat 23 May, 23:00

Mirassol v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 03:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol face Fluminense in Serie A on Sat 23 May, 23:00. Mirassol come in with 7 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while Fluminense have 10 points and 1.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • At 1.91, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • Mirassol show a 80% BTTS rate and Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Mirassol average 1.2 goals scored and Fluminense average 1.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Mirassol show a 80% BTTS rate and Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
Mirassol show a 80% BTTS rate and Fluminense show a.Visible data support
Positive
Mirassol average 1.2 goals scored and Fluminense average 1.8, so.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Mirassol show a 80% BTTS rate and Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

Mirassol show a 80% BTTS rate and Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Mirassol average 1.2 goals scored and Fluminense average 1.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting Both Teams To Score.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mirassol4.2
Avg corners for
Fluminense4.6
Mirassol11
Avg total corners
Fluminense8.2
Mirassol2.6
Avg yellow cards
Fluminense2.6
Mirassol11.2
Avg shots
Fluminense14.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 58% · edge +7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1.2
Avg goals scored
Fluminense1.8
Mirassol1.4
Avg goals conceded
Fluminense1.6
Mirassol80%
BTTS rate
Fluminense80%
Mirassol60%
Over 2.5 goals
Fluminense80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
16 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-3
10 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-1
04 May 2026H Corinthians2-1
26 Apr 2026A Sao Paulo0-1
19 Apr 2026A Internacional2-1

Fluminense

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
16 May 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
09 May 2026H Vitoria2-2
03 May 2026A Internacional0-2
27 Apr 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-1
19 Apr 2026A Santos3-2
Best odds for this sectionFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 36% · edge +20.7 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Mirassol wins
0Draws
1Fluminense wins
06 Nov 2025Fluminense v Mirassol1-0
09 Oct 2025Mirassol v Fluminense2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Mirassol17
Played
Fluminense18
Mirassol1.1
Avg goals for
Fluminense1.6
Mirassol1.4
Avg goals against
Fluminense1.3
Mirassol1
Clean sheets
Fluminense3
Best odds for this sectionFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 36% · edge +20.7 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season data supports Fluminense to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Fluminense31189455
19Mirassol1617449-6
Mirassol sit in position 19, while Fluminense sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Mirassol Over 2.5
80%Fluminense Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Mirassol sit at 60% and Fluminense sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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