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Mirassol crestMirassol
v
Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG

Serie A | Sat 14 Nov, 21:30

Mirassol v Atletico-MG Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol hosts Atletico-MG in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown cautious attacking output recently. Mirassol ranks 14th with 40 points, while Atletico-MG sits 7th with 50 points, reflecting a gap in quality but similar defensive discipline. Both sides average just over one goal scored and conceded per game, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The match is poised for a tight contest where defensive solidity and midfield control could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, making a low-scoring outcome plausible.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Mirassol and Atletico-MG average just over 1 goal scored and conceded per game, indicating tight defenses.
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates: 20% for Mirassol, 40% for Atletico-MG, supporting fewer goals.
  • Mirassol averages 13.6 shots per game with 3.4 on target; Atletico-MG averages 15.8 shots with 4.8 on target, showing moderate attacking threat.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3 goals, but recent form and defensive stats suggest fewer goals likely here.
  • Key players like Zé Roberto and Nathan Fogaça for Mirassol and Dudu and Reinier for Atletico-MG have moderate shot volumes but limited goal conversion.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.5% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and modest attacking output. Mirassol's low Over 2.5 rate (20%) and Atletico-MG's 40% rate, combined with average goals scored and conceded near one per game, suggest a match with limited scoring. Moderate shot volumes and on-target rates indicate chances but not an open game. The model sees value as the implied market chance is 51.3%, below the model's 61.5%, making Under 2.5 Goals a sound selection with standard stake guidance.

Mirassol Over 2.5 Rate20%
Strong positive
Atletico-MG Over 2.5 Rate40%
Positive
Average Goals Scored/Conceded~1 per game each
Strong positive
Shots and Shots on TargetModerate volumes, not high
Positive
Model vs Market Implied Chance61.5% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given both teams' defensive discipline and modest scoring records. Mirassol's conservative approach and Atletico-MG's balanced attack point to a match where chances will be limited and finishing cautious. The statistical profile supports a low-scoring game, making Under 2.5 Goals a solid tactical and data-backed choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical analysis

“This fixture features two sides that prioritize defensive organization over open attacking play, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible expectation. The moderate shot volumes and recent scoring trends reinforce the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Mirassol and Atletico-MG average just over 1 goal scored and conceded per game, indicating tight defenses.

Mirassol averages 13.6 shots per game with 3.4 on target; Atletico-MG averages 15.8 shots with 4.8 on target, showing moderate attacking threat.

Head-to-head matches average 3 goals, but recent form and defensive stats suggest fewer goals likely here.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a moderately open scoring trend historically.
  • However, recent form and defensive statistics suggest a slowdown in goal frequency.
  • The trend panel over the last five matches for both teams shows a preference for tighter games, implying that while Over 2.5 Goals is possible, the tempo and defensive setups favor fewer goals this time around.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1
Avg goals scored
Atletico-MG1
Mirassol1
Avg goals conceded
Atletico-MG1.2
Mirassol40%
BTTS rate
Atletico-MG40%
Mirassol20%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +10.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Both teams have low scoring and conceding averages near one goal per game, with Mirassol's Over 2.5 Goals rate at 20% and Atletico-MG's at 40%. Both Teams To Score rates are moderate at 40%, indicating that while goals can occur, the match is more likely to see limited scoring. The head-to-head average of 3 goals is higher but recent form and defensive solidity suggest fewer goals this time.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 57% · edge +2.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Atletico-MG to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Mirassol to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 61.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Mirassol and 40% for Atletico-MG, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

WLDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
03 Nov 2026A Chapecoense-sc2-1
30 Oct 2026A Corinthians0-2
24 Oct 2026H Sao Paulo1-1
17 Oct 2026H Internacional2-0
11 Oct 2026A Bahia0-1

Atletico-MG

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
05 Nov 2026A Botafogo0-1
29 Oct 2026H Cruzeiro0-1
26 Oct 2026A Flamengo2-3
17 Oct 2026H Coritiba1-0
11 Oct 2026H Santos2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 56% · edge +8.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Atletico-MG to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Mirassol to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows Mirassol has scored and conceded just 1 goal in their last matches, with a low 20% Over 2.5 Goals rate. Atletico-MG's recent matches also reflect a similar pattern with 1.2 goals conceded on average and a 40% Over 2.5 rate. This defensive consistency and low scoring trend in recent fixtures reinforce the likelihood of a low-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Mirassol Over 2.5
40%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a moderately open scoring trend historically. However, recent form and defensive statistics suggest a slowdown in goal frequency. The trend panel over the last five matches for both teams shows a preference for tighter games, implying that while Over 2.5 Goals is possible, the tempo and defensive setups favor fewer goals this time around.

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