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Millwall crestMillwall
v
Hull City crestHull City

Championship | Mon 11 May, 20:00

Millwall v Hull City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 19:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Millwall face Hull City in Championship on Mon 11 May, 20:00. Keeping eleven clean sheets across 23 league matches at home has been the platform for their third-place finish. Millwall are unbeaten in six matches and have won four of their last six at The Den without conceding.

BT4Y best bet

Millwall Win

  • At 4/6, Millwall Win implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • Millwall have kept eleven clean sheets at home this season and produced the clearer openings in the first leg.
  • Millwall have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hull City.
  • Millwall have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Millwall Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Millwall sit 3 in the table, while Hull City sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Millwall Win sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Millwall have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hull City. Millwall have kept eleven clean sheets at home this season and produced the clearer openings in the first leg.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Millwall have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Millwall have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Millwall have kept eleven clean sheets at home this.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Millwall Win is the preferred angle because millwall have kept eleven clean sheets at home this season and produced the clearer openings in the first leg. Millwall have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hull City. The Lions do not always overwhelm opponents with relentless attacking football, but they are extremely difficult to break down once they establish rhythm and territory.

Main risk

The Lions do not always overwhelm opponents with relentless attacking football, but they are extremely difficult to break down once they establish rhythm and territory.

Key Data Signals

Millwall Win evidence

Millwall have kept eleven clean sheets at home this season and produced the clearer openings in the first.

Millwall have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Hull City.

Millwall have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Millwall Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Millwall sit 3 in the table, while Hull City sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Millwall Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Millwall7.6
    Avg corners for
    Hull City4.4
    Millwall12.4
    Avg total corners
    Hull City10.8
    Millwall1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Hull City1.8
    Millwall16.6
    Avg shots
    Hull City11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4.4 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more Championship analysisMillwall v Hull City predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Millwall1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Hull City1.2
    Millwall0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Hull City1.2
    Millwall40%
    BTTS rate
    Hull City80%
    Millwall20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Hull City60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 27% · edge +40 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMillwall to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 57% · edge +14 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Millwall Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Millwall to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Millwall

    DWDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    08 May 2026A Hull City0-0
    02 May 2026H Oxford United2-0
    24 Apr 2026A Leicester1-1
    21 Apr 2026A Stoke City3-1
    18 Apr 2026H QPR2-0

    Hull City

    DWLDD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    08 May 2026H Millwall0-0
    02 May 2026H Norwich2-1
    25 Apr 2026A Charlton1-2
    21 Apr 2026A Leicester2-2
    18 Apr 2026H Birmingham1-1
    Market aligned with main pickMillwall to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 57% · edge +14 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Millwall Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Millwall wins
    4Draws
    4Hull City wins
    08 May 2026Hull City v Millwall0-0
    07 Mar 2026Hull City v Millwall1-3
    13 Dec 2025Millwall v Hull City1-3
    18 Jan 2025Millwall v Hull City0-1
    24 Aug 2024Hull City v Millwall0-0
    03 Feb 2024Hull City v Millwall1-0
    Market aligned with main pickMillwall to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 57% · edge +14 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Millwall to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Championship

    Millwall48
    Played
    Hull City49
    Millwall1.3
    Avg goals for
    Hull City1.5
    Millwall1.1
    Avg goals against
    Hull City1.3
    Millwall19
    Clean sheets
    Hull City14
    Market aligned with main pickMillwall to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 57% · edge +14 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Millwall Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports Millwall to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Millwall834624111115
    6Hull City73462110154
    Millwall sit in position 3, while Hull City sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Millwall Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Millwall Over 2.5
    60%Hull City Over 2.5
    1.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Millwall sit at 20% and Hull City sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Millwall v Hull City prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

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