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Millwall crestMillwall
v
Derby crestDerby

Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Millwall v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 02:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Millwall approach this Championship clash at The Den in strong form, having secured 19 points from their last eight matches and boasting a robust defensive record with 15 clean sheets this season. Derby arrive with playoff ambitions, having scored two or more goals in each of their last three league games, but have lost three of their last six. The fixture promises a tactical battle with Millwall's aerial control and wide attacking play set to challenge Derby's direct style and clinical finishing. The match carries significant stakes as Millwall aim to maintain pressure in the automatic promotion race while Derby seek to close the gap in the playoff positions.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Millwall to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 61%, above the 55% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Millwall have earned 19 points from their last eight Championship matches, showing strong form.
  • Millwall lead the aerial duels with an average of 26.8 won per game versus Derby's 21.6.
  • Derby have scored 2+ goals in their last three league games, indicating attacking threat.
  • Millwall have gone 14 consecutive matches without trailing at half-time, highlighting early control.
Price warning

Millwall to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 61% while the model sits nearer 55% (-5.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

Millwall's recent surge is underpinned by a solid defensive foundation and effective attacking patterns, including a high volume of shots (12.8 per game) and aerial superiority. Their ability to control matches early, as evidenced by 14 consecutive games without trailing at half-time, supports their winning chances. Derby's clinical finishing and recent scoring form present a threat but their defensive vulnerabilities and lower clean sheet count make Millwall the favored side. The current reflect a slight for Millwall to win, supported by their home form and tactical advantages.

Recent FormMillwall have taken 19 points from last 8 games
Strong positive
Defensive Strength15 clean sheets for Millwall vs 8 for Derby
Strong positive
Aerial DuelsMillwall average 26.8 won per match
Strong positive
Derby Scoring Form2+ goals in last 3 league matches
Positive
Implied Odds vs Model Chance55.4% model chance vs 60.6% implied (-5.2 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Millwall's blend of defensive resilience and aerial control at The Den gives them a tactical edge over Derby, who rely on clinical finishing but have defensive frailties. The home side's recent form and ability to control matches early make them the likely winners in a competitive fixture.

Main risk

The hosts sit 13th, ten places above Derby, but their own inconsistency means this is far from a straightforward assignment.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match result

“Millwall's strong defensive record combined with their aerial prowess and home advantage creates a challenging environment for Derby's direct attacking style, making Millwall the logical pick for victory.”

Key Data Signals

Millwall to Win evidence

Millwall have earned 19 points from their last eight Championship matches, showing strong form.

Millwall lead the aerial duels with an average of 26.8 won per game versus Derby's 21.6.

Derby have scored 2+ goals in their last three league games, indicating attacking threat.

Millwall have gone 14 consecutive matches without trailing at half-time, highlighting early control.

What To Watch In The Data

Millwall to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.9, suggesting moderately low-scoring affairs.
  • However, recent trends show Derby scoring multiple goals in consecutive matches and Millwall's attacking pressure, indicating a potential for over 2.5 goals driven by tempo and attacking transitions in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Millwall1.2
Avg goals scored
Derby0.8
Millwall1.4
Avg goals conceded
Derby1.6
Millwall60%
BTTS rate
Derby80%
Millwall60%
Over 2.5 goals
Derby20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown scoring capabilities, with Derby netting multiple goals in recent matches and Millwall maintaining strong attacking pressure. This suggests a likelihood of both teams scoring, supported by Millwall's offensive width and Derby's clinical finishing, making BTTS a plausible outcome in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMillwall to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 61% · edge -5.2 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Millwall Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 55.4% for Millwall to Win sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (-5.2 pts). Millwall have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Derby. The 2-1 score balances Millwall’s attacking potential and Derby’s limited but present threat, though the bet risks failure if Derby fail to score.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Millwall

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
24 Oct 2026A Portsmouth1-2
17 Oct 2026H Lincoln2-2
13 Oct 2026H Swansea0-1
10 Oct 2026A Preston1-0
19 Sep 2026H West Ham2-2

Derby

DLLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
24 Oct 2026A Sheffield Utd1-1
17 Oct 2026H Stoke City0-1
14 Oct 2026A QPR1-4
10 Oct 2026H Wrexham1-1
19 Sep 2026A Burnley1-1
Market aligned with main pickMillwall to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 61% · edge -5.2 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Millwall Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Millwall's recent form is impressive, securing 19 points from their last eight matches and maintaining defensive stability with multiple clean sheets. Derby have shown attacking resurgence with consecutive wins and multiple goals but have been inconsistent defensively, losing three of their last six, which could be decisive in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Millwall Over 2.5
20%Derby Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.9, suggesting moderately low-scoring affairs. However, recent trends show Derby scoring multiple goals in consecutive matches and Millwall's attacking pressure, indicating a potential for over 2.5 goals driven by tempo and attacking transitions in this fixture.

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