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Middlesbroughv
WatfordChampionship | Sat 25 Apr, 12:30
Middlesbrough v Watford Stats
BT4Y best bet
Under 2.5 Goals
- At 15, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 7% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 53%, so the current line is showing a +46.5-point value edge.
- Middlesbrough are at 60% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Watford are at 40%, and the H2H goal average is 2.4.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Middlesbrough have taken 1 win from their last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Watford have taken 0 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 15, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 9% · edge +41.7 pts
11
Bet HERE @ 11Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
60%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
40%Watford Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Middlesbrough
WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 103W 4D 3L
22 Apr 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-0
19 Apr 2026A Ipswich2-2
11 Apr 2026H Portsmouth0-1
06 Apr 2026A Swansea2-2
03 Apr 2026H Millwall1-2
Watford
LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 recordLast 102W 3D 5L
21 Apr 2026A West Brom0-3
18 Apr 2026H Sheffield Utd0-2
11 Apr 2026A Oxford United0-2
06 Apr 2026H Charlton1-1
03 Apr 2026A QPR1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 24% · edge +17.9 pts
4.15
Bet HERE @ 4.15Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Middlesbrough1.2
Avg goals scoredWatford0.4
Middlesbrough1.4
Avg goals concededWatford2
Middlesbrough60%
BTTS rateWatford40%
Middlesbrough60%
Over 2.5 goalsWatford40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 7% · edge +46.5 pts
15
Bet HERE @ 15Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
3Middlesbrough wins
2Draws
5Watford wins
01 Nov 2025Watford v Middlesbrough3-0
15 Feb 2025Middlesbrough v Watford0-1
05 Oct 2024Watford v Middlesbrough2-1
04 May 2024Middlesbrough v Watford3-1
30 Sep 2023Watford v Middlesbrough2-3
28 Jan 2023Middlesbrough v Watford2-0
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 51% vs implied 9% · edge +41.7 pts
11
Bet HERE @ 11Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Middlesbrough10.6
Avg corners forWatford7.2
Middlesbrough14
Avg total cornersWatford12
Middlesbrough2.2
Avg yellow cardsWatford2.6
Middlesbrough22.8
Avg shotsWatford14.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 50% · edge +19.2 pts
2
Bet HERE @ 2Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Best player angleVivaldo Semedo Anytime GoalscorerVivaldo Semedo · 4 goals · 1.79 SOT/90
78/100
Bet HERELoad more player angles
Vivaldo SemedoWatford · Attacker
Goal threat70/100
Shots /902.63
SOT /901.79
M. WhittakerMiddlesbrough · Attacker
Goal threat69/100
Shots /902.19
SOT /901.06
Leo CastledineMiddlesbrough · Midfielder
Goal threat67/100
Shots /904.25
SOT /902.29
Finley MunroeMiddlesbrough · Defender
Goal threat36/100
Shots /904.74
SOT /901.58
Amin NabizadaWatford · Attacker
Goal threat22/100
Shots /902.93
SOT /900.98
N. IrankundaWatford · Attacker
Goal threat56/100
Shots /902.2
SOT /901.1
R. AndrewsWatford · Defender
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
J. MorrisWatford · Defender
Goal threat2/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
Season team stats
Championship
Middlesbrough46
PlayedWatford46
Middlesbrough1.6
Avg goals forWatford1.2
Middlesbrough1
Avg goals againstWatford1.4
Middlesbrough13
Clean sheetsWatford7
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 24% · edge +17.9 pts
4.15
Bet HERE @ 4.15Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 80 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 25 |
| 16 | Watford | 57 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | -12 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
