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Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough
v
Southampton crestSouthampton

Championship | Sat 09 May, 12:30

Middlesbrough v Southampton Stats

Data last updated: Sun 02 Aug 2026, 15:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Middlesbrough face Southampton in Championship on Sat 09 May, 12:30. Middlesbrough's propensity for 2-2 draws away from home aligns with Southampton's recent high-scoring stalemates at St Mary's stadium.

BT4Y best bet

A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full

  • At 10/1, A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full implies roughly 9%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 24%.
  • Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.
  • Middlesbrough show a 60% BTTS rate and Southampton show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Middlesbrough average 2 goals scored and Southampton average 2.4, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 24% for A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full sits against roughly 9% implied by the current price. Middlesbrough show a 60% BTTS rate and Southampton show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.

Model chance vs price24% model chance against roughly 9% implied
Strong positive
Middlesbrough show a 60% BTTS rate and Southampton show a.Visible data support
Positive
Middlesbrough average 2 goals scored and Southampton average 2.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws. Middlesbrough show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Southampton show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The absence of Hayden Hackney remains significant, because he normally gives Middlesbrough more rhythm and progression from deeper areas, but Riley McGree and Aidan Morris compensated impressively in the first leg.

Main risk

The absence of Hayden Hackney remains significant, because he normally gives Middlesbrough more rhythm and progression from deeper areas, but Riley McGree and Aidan Morris compensated impressively in the first leg.

Key Data Signals

A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full evidence

Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.

Middlesbrough show a 60% BTTS rate and Southampton show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Middlesbrough average 2 goals scored and Southampton average 2.4, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Middlesbrough2
Avg goals scored
Southampton2.4
Middlesbrough1.2
Avg goals conceded
Southampton1.2
Middlesbrough60%
BTTS rate
Southampton80%
Middlesbrough60%
Over 2.5 goals
Southampton100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Southampton to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Middlesbrough7
Avg corners for
Southampton7.2
Middlesbrough10.6
Avg total corners
Southampton13.2
Middlesbrough1.6
Avg yellow cards
Southampton1.2
Middlesbrough16.8
Avg shots
Southampton15.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 60% · edge -3.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Middlesbrough

DWWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
02 May 2026A Wrexham2-2
25 Apr 2026H Watford5-1
22 Apr 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-0
19 Apr 2026A Ipswich2-2
11 Apr 2026H Portsmouth0-1

Southampton

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 2D 0L
02 May 2026A Preston3-1
28 Apr 2026H Ipswich2-2
21 Apr 2026H Bristol City2-2
18 Apr 2026A Swansea2-1
14 Apr 2026H Blackburn3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Southampton to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Middlesbrough to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Middlesbrough wins
2Draws
3Southampton wins
04 Jan 2026Middlesbrough v Southampton4-0
27 Sep 2025Southampton v Middlesbrough1-1
29 Mar 2024Southampton v Middlesbrough1-1
23 Sep 2023Middlesbrough v Southampton2-1
13 May 2017Middlesbrough v Southampton1-2
11 Dec 2016Southampton v Middlesbrough1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Southampton to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Middlesbrough to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Season team stats

Championship

Middlesbrough49
Played
Southampton48
Middlesbrough1.5
Avg goals for
Southampton1.8
Middlesbrough1
Avg goals against
Southampton1.2
Middlesbrough14
Clean sheets
Southampton12
Best odds for this sectionSouthampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Southampton to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Middlesbrough to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Season data supports Southampton Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Southampton804622141026
5Middlesbrough804622141025
Middlesbrough sit in position 5, while Southampton sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
100%Southampton Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Middlesbrough sit at 60% and Southampton sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.63 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Middlesbrough v Southampton prediction

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Betting context

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