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Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough
v
Charlton crestCharlton

Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Middlesbrough v Charlton Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 02:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Middlesbrough return to the Riverside Stadium aiming to extend their strong promotion push after scoring seven goals in their last two matches, showcasing clinical attacking form and technical superiority. Sitting second in the Championship, Middlesbrough control possession with 58% average and high pass accuracy, positioning themselves to dominate Charlton, who average just 0.89 goals per away game and rely on a physical, aerial approach. Charlton, ranked 19th, will look to disrupt Middlesbrough's rhythm through long balls and set-piece pressure, creating a tactical battle between possession control and physicality in a match with high stakes for both sides.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Middlesbrough to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 80%, above the 74% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Middlesbrough have scored 7 goals in their last 2 matches, showing strong attacking momentum.
  • Charlton average only 0.89 goals per away game, indicating limited offensive threat on the road.
  • Middlesbrough maintain 58% possession and superior technical metrics, likely to control the game.
  • Charlton's aerial control contrasts with Middlesbrough's weakness in aerial duels, posing a set-piece threat.
Price warning

Middlesbrough to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 80% while the model sits nearer 74% (-6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

Middlesbrough's recent scoring surge and dominant possession metrics underpin a 74% to win, reflecting their ability to control tempo and create high-quality chances. Their 15 shots per game and 58% possession advantage suggest sustained pressure against a Charlton side struggling for away goals. Despite a slightly short price, the model sees value in Middlesbrough's technical edge and momentum, though cautious staking is advised due to Charlton's aerial threat and potential for set-piece disruption.

Price / value74% model chance vs 80% implied (-6 pts)
Negative
Recent Scoring Form7 goals in last 2 matches
Strong positive
Possession and Passing58% possession, 85% pass accuracy
Strong positive
Charlton Away Goal Average0.89 goals per game
Positive
Aerial Duel WeaknessMiddlesbrough vulnerable in air vs Charlton's strength
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Middlesbrough's technical superiority and recent goal-scoring form make them the clear favorites to secure victory at home. Their ability to control possession and create numerous chances contrasts with Charlton's limited away scoring and reliance on physicality, suggesting a tactical mismatch favoring Middlesbrough's win.

Main risk

However, defensive consistency remains a concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Middlesbrough's blend of possession control and attacking efficiency positions them well to overcome Charlton's physical approach, though their aerial vulnerability demands attention to set-piece defense.”

Key Data Signals

Middlesbrough to Win evidence

Middlesbrough have scored 7 goals in their last 2 matches, showing strong attacking momentum.

Charlton average only 0.89 goals per away game, indicating limited offensive threat on the road.

Middlesbrough maintain 58% possession and superior technical metrics, likely to control the game.

Charlton's aerial control contrasts with Middlesbrough's weakness in aerial duels, posing a set-piece threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Middlesbrough to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.7 per game, suggesting a moderately low-scoring trend.
  • Middlesbrough's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Charlton's is 60%, indicating that Middlesbrough's attacking tempo could push the game over 2.5 goals despite the historical average.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Middlesbrough2.6
Avg goals scored
Charlton1
Middlesbrough1.4
Avg goals conceded
Charlton2.2
Middlesbrough80%
BTTS rate
Charlton80%
Middlesbrough80%
Over 2.5 goals
Charlton60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Given Charlton's low away scoring average of 0.89 goals and Middlesbrough's solid defensive record with 11 clean sheets, a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals scenario is plausible. Middlesbrough's attacking efficiency may produce goals, but Charlton's limited threat and defensive focus suggest a controlled scoring environment rather than an open shootout.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMiddlesbrough to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 74% for Middlesbrough to Win sits against roughly 80% implied by the current price (-6 pts). Middlesbrough have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 2 for Charlton. A 2-1 scoreline fits Middlesbrough’s strong attack against bottom-half teams and Charlton’s limited away goals.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Middlesbrough

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
23 Oct 2026A Bolton5-1
17 Oct 2026H Cardiff2-2
13 Oct 2026A Stoke City3-2
10 Oct 2026H Wolves1-0
19 Sep 2026A Birmingham2-2

Charlton

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Norwich1-3
17 Oct 2026A Watford0-2
13 Oct 2026A Burnley2-2
10 Oct 2026H Bristol City1-1
19 Sep 2026A Cardiff1-3
Market aligned with main pickMiddlesbrough to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Middlesbrough's recent form is strong, earning 11 points in their last matches with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Charlton's form is weaker, with only 2 points and 1 goal scored per game, indicating a momentum advantage for Middlesbrough that supports their likelihood to win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
60%Charlton Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.7 per game, suggesting a moderately low-scoring trend. Middlesbrough's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Charlton's is 60%, indicating that Middlesbrough's attacking tempo could push the game over 2.5 goals despite the historical average.

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