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v
England crestEngland

World Cup | Mon 06 Jul, 02:00

Mexico v England Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 11:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mexico face England in World Cup on Mon 06 Jul, 02:00. Estadio Azteca is a footballing pressure cooker, and this match carries the extra strain of Mexico playing at home in a stadium sitting 7,200ft above sea level. England possess superior attacking depth with Harry Kane in ruthless form, netting five goals.

BT4Y best bet

Mexico Win

  • At 90, Mexico Win implies roughly 1%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 16%.
  • Mexico have won four from four at this World Cup and have not conceded a single goal.
  • Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for England.
  • Mexico have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Mexico Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 16% for Mexico Win sits against roughly 1% implied by the current price. Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for England. Mexico have won four from four at this World Cup and have not conceded a single goal.

Model chance vs price16% model chance against roughly 1% implied
Strong positive
Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Mexico have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Mexico have won four from four at this World.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Mexico Win is the preferred angle because mexico have won four from four at this World Cup and have not conceded a single goal. Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for England. The concern is not whether they can score.

Main risk

The concern is not whether they can score.

Key Data Signals

Mexico Win evidence

Mexico have won four from four at this World Cup and have not conceded a single goal.

Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for England.

Mexico have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Mexico Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Mexico Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Mexico1.75
    Avg corners for
    England7.25
    Mexico5.75
    Avg total corners
    England9.75
    Mexico0.5
    Avg yellow cards
    England0.75
    Mexico12.5
    Avg shots
    England18.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 38% · edge +7.9 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 46%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    World Cup fixtures and predictionsMexico v England predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Mexico2
    Avg goals scored
    England2
    Mexico0
    Avg goals conceded
    England0.75
    Mexico0%
    BTTS rate
    England50%
    Mexico25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    England50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 46%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Mexico to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Mexico

    WWWW
    Last 54W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 0L
    01 Jul 2026H Ecuador2-0
    25 Jun 2026A Czechia3-0
    19 Jun 2026H South Korea1-0
    11 Jun 2026H South Africa2-0

    England

    WWDW
    Last 53W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 0L
    01 Jul 2026H Congo DR2-1
    27 Jun 2026A Panama2-0
    23 Jun 2026H Ghana0-0
    17 Jun 2026H Croatia4-2
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 80%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Mexico wins
    0Draws
    0England wins
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Mexico to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Mexico5
    Played
    England8
    Mexico2
    Avg goals for
    England2.5
    Mexico0.6
    Avg goals against
    England1.5
    Mexico4
    Clean sheets
    England2
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Mexico to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Mexico933006
    1England732104
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    25%Mexico Over 2.5
    50%England Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Mexico sit at 25% and England sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Mexico v England prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    World Cup hubWorld Cup fixtures and predictionsMexico v England predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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