Football Stats Hub

Mexico crestMexico
v
Ecuador crestEcuador

World Cup | Wed 01 Jul, 02:00

Mexico v Ecuador Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 10:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mexico face Ecuador in World Cup on Wed 01 Jul, 02:00. Mexico enter this knockout match with three consecutive clean sheets in the group phase. Three games, three wins, six goals scored, none conceded.

BT4Y best bet

Rationale: Both Teams To Score - No Mexico have won all three World Cup matches so far without conceding a single goal

  • At 9/2, Rationale: Both Teams To Score - No Mexico have won all three World Cup matches so far without conceding a single goal implies roughly 18%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • Ecuador have conceded in their main games but showed great recovery to overcome Germany.
  • Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ecuador.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 33% for Rationale: Both Teams To Score - No Mexico have won all three World Cup matches so far without conceding a single goal sits against roughly 18% implied by the current price. Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ecuador. Ecuador have conceded in their main games but showed great recovery to overcome Germany.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 18% implied
Strong positive
Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Ecuador have conceded in their main games but showed.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Mexico Win is the preferred angle because ecuador have conceded in their main games but showed great recovery to overcome Germany. Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ecuador. They must manage risk.

Main risk

They must manage risk.

Key Data Signals

Rationale: Both Teams To Score - No Mexico have won all three World Cup matches so far without conceding a single goal evidence

Ecuador have conceded in their main games but showed great recovery to overcome Germany.

Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ecuador.

Mexico have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Mexico Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Rationale: Both Teams To Score - No Mexico have won all three World Cup matches so far without conceding a single goal notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Mexico1.33
    Avg corners for
    Ecuador5.67
    Mexico4
    Avg total corners
    Ecuador7.33
    Mexico0.67
    Avg yellow cards
    Ecuador1.67
    Mexico11.67
    Avg shots
    Ecuador15.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    World Cup fixtures and predictionsMexico v Ecuador predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Mexico2
    Avg goals scored
    Ecuador0.67
    Mexico0
    Avg goals conceded
    Ecuador0.67
    Mexico0%
    BTTS rate
    Ecuador33%
    Mexico33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Ecuador33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Mexico to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Mexico

    WWW
    Last 53W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 0L
    25 Jun 2026A Czechia3-0
    19 Jun 2026H South Korea1-0
    11 Jun 2026H South Africa2-0

    Ecuador

    WDL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    25 Jun 2026H Germany2-1
    21 Jun 2026H Curaçao0-0
    15 Jun 2026A Ivory Coast0-1
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Mexico wins
    3Draws
    2Ecuador wins
    15 Oct 2025Mexico v Ecuador1-1
    01 Jul 2024Mexico v Ecuador0-0
    06 Jun 2022Mexico v Ecuador0-0
    28 Oct 2021Mexico v Ecuador2-3
    10 Jun 2019Mexico v Ecuador3-2
    19 Jun 2015Mexico v Ecuador1-2
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Mexico to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Mexico5
    Played
    Ecuador4
    Mexico2
    Avg goals for
    Ecuador0.5
    Mexico0.6
    Avg goals against
    Ecuador1
    Mexico4
    Clean sheets
    Ecuador1
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Season data supports Mexico to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Mexico933006
    3Ecuador431110
    4Ecuador431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Mexico Over 2.5
    33%Ecuador Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Mexico sit at 33% and Ecuador sit at 33% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Mexico v Ecuador prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    World Cup hubWorld Cup fixtures and predictionsMexico v Ecuador predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre