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Mexico crestMexico
v
Australia crestAustralia

Friendlies | Sun 31 May, 03:00

Mexico v Australia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 12 Jul 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mexico face Australia in Friendlies on Sun 31 May, 03:00. Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Form Missing natural attacking focal points, Mexico are well-placed to secure a signature cautious 1-0 clean-sheet outcome. These matches may not award points or trophies, but they carry enormous emotional weight.

BT4Y best bet

1: Match Result — Mexico to Win Mexico's overarching identity under Javier Aguirre provides the key tactical engine for this encounter

  • At 6/10, Mexico Win implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Mexico's defensive resilience under Javier Aguirre has seen them concede just once in their last six matches.
  • Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Australia.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Mexico Win sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Australia. Mexico's defensive resilience under Javier Aguirre has seen them concede just once in their last six matches.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 63% implied
Positive
Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Mexico's defensive resilience under Javier Aguirre has seen them.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Mexico Win is the preferred angle because mexico's defensive resilience under Javier Aguirre has seen them concede just once in their last six matches. Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Australia. In previous periods, Mexico often played with emotional urgency but little balance.

Main risk

In previous periods, Mexico often played with emotional urgency but little balance.

Key Data Signals

Mexico Win evidence

Mexico's defensive resilience under Javier Aguirre has seen them concede just once in their last six matches.

Mexico have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 0 for Australia.

What To Watch In The Data

Mexico Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Mexico to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Mexico1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Australia-
    Mexico0.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Australia-
    Mexico20%
    BTTS rate
    Australia-
    Mexico20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Australia-
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 64%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Mexico

    WDDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 0L
    23 May 2026H Ghana2-0
    01 Apr 2026H Belgium1-1
    29 Mar 2026H Portugal0-0
    26 Feb 2026H Iceland4-0
    25 Jan 2026A Bolivia1-0

    Australia

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Australia yet.

    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Mexico4.8
    Avg corners for
    Australia-
    Mexico7.8
    Avg total corners
    Australia-
    Mexico2
    Avg yellow cards
    Australia-
    Mexico12
    Avg shots
    Australia-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 53% · edge -5.3 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Mexico wins
    1Draws
    0Australia wins
    10 Sep 2023Mexico v Australia2-2
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Mexico to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Mexico8
    Played
    Australia2
    Mexico1.9
    Avg goals for
    Australia0.5
    Mexico0.3
    Avg goals against
    Australia1
    Mexico6
    Clean sheets
    Australia0
    Market aligned with main pickMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Season data supports Mexico to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Mexico Over 2.5
    -Australia Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    Mexico's defensive resilience under Javier Aguirre has seen them concede just once in their last six matches.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Mexico v Australia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre