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Marseille crestMarseille
v
Toulouse crestToulouse

Ligue 1 | Sun 01 Nov, 19:45

Marseille v Toulouse Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 12:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Marseille visit Toulouse with a potent attack that has netted 51 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches, led by Mason Greenwood's 14 league goals and 3.7 shots per game. Toulouse, unbeaten in their last four home games, rely on aerial strength and set-piece threat, especially from Charlie Cresswell, to challenge opponents. Despite Toulouse's resilience and recent cup , their league form is poor, winless in five matches. Marseille's possession control and technical quality contrast with Toulouse's physical style, setting up a tactical battle where Marseille's firepower aims to break down a stubborn home defense, but both sides are likely to score given defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Marseille to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Marseille have scored 51 goals this season, averaging 14.4 shots per game.
  • Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 4 home matches and excel in aerial duels with 15.9 won per game.
  • Marseille struggle to defend through balls and protect leads, making them vulnerable to Toulouse's set-pieces.
  • Mason Greenwood leads Marseille with 14 league goals and high shot volume, supported by Aubameyang and Paixao.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate recently, indicating a strong chance both will score in this match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Marseille to Win & Both Teams to Score as a strong pick due to Marseille's superior attacking output, averaging 14.4 shots and 51 goals this season, combined with Toulouse's home resilience and aerial control that suggests they will find the net. The of 29.3% exceeds the implied chance of 23.8%, indicating positive value. Marseille's possession and passing accuracy support their ability to control the game, while Toulouse's set-piece threat and defensive lapses make a clean sheet unlikely. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Marseille attacking strength51 goals, 14.4 shots/game
Strong positive
Toulouse home resilienceUnbeaten last 4 home games
Positive
Aerial duel advantage for Toulouse15.9 duels won vs 9.7 for Marseille
Positive
Marseille defensive vulnerabilityWeak at protecting leads and through balls
Positive
BTTS recent ratesBoth teams 60% BTTS rate
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Marseille's superior firepower and control in possession make them favorites to win, but Toulouse's aerial strength and home resilience almost guarantee they will score. This combination of attacking quality and defensive vulnerability on both sides supports the bet on Marseille to win with both teams scoring.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and BTTS rationale

“Marseille's technical superiority and attacking depth should secure the win, yet Toulouse's set-piece threat and home form make a goal for both sides highly probable in this lively Ligue 1 clash.”

Key Data Signals

Marseille to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Marseille have scored 51 goals this season, averaging 14.4 shots per game.

Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 4 home matches and excel in aerial duels with 15.9 won per game.

Marseille struggle to defend through balls and protect leads, making them vulnerable to Toulouse's set-pieces.

Mason Greenwood leads Marseille with 14 league goals and high shot volume, supported by Aubameyang and Paixao.

What To Watch In The Data

Marseille to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams have shown a propensity for over 2.5 goals in recent fixtures, with Toulouse's aerial threat and Marseille's attacking volume driving goal opportunities.
  • This trend reinforces the likelihood of both teams scoring and a lively match tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Marseille2.4
Avg goals scored
Toulouse2
Marseille1.6
Avg goals conceded
Toulouse1.2
Marseille60%
BTTS rate
Toulouse60%
Marseille60%
Over 2.5 goals
Toulouse80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 86% · edge +2.1 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% recent BTTS rate, supported by Marseille's 51 goals and Toulouse's aerial threat. Marseille's defensive weaknesses and Toulouse's set-piece strength create multiple routes for goals on both sides. The tactical contrast between Marseille's possession and Toulouse's physicality suggests an open game with scoring chances for each team.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMarseille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 65% · edge -10.1 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Marseille to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 31.4% for Marseille to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 23.8% implied by the current price (+7.6 pts). The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Marseille and 60% for Toulouse. While Toulouse are resilient at home and strong on set-pieces, Marseille’s technical quality often overcomes domestic rivals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Marseille

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 4L
25 Oct 2026H Le Havre4-3
18 Oct 2026A Angers5-2
11 Oct 2026A Estac Troyes2-0
20 Sep 2026H Paris Saint Germain1-2
11 Sep 2026A Rennes0-1

Toulouse

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 2L
25 Oct 2026H Estac Troyes0-0
16 Oct 2026A Le Mans3-0
10 Oct 2026A Monaco2-2
19 Sep 2026H Le Havre3-2
12 Sep 2026A Lorient2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.4 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Marseille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Marseille to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Marseille have collected 9 points recently, scoring 2.4 goals per game but conceding 1.6, reflecting attacking strength coupled with defensive lapses. Toulouse also have 9 points but have scored fewer goals (2 per game) and conceded less (1.2), showing resilience but offensive struggles. Both teams have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating matches tend to be open and goal-rich.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Marseille Over 2.5
80%Toulouse Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring encounters. Both teams have shown a propensity for over 2.5 goals in recent fixtures, with Toulouse's aerial threat and Marseille's attacking volume driving goal opportunities. This trend reinforces the likelihood of both teams scoring and a lively match tempo.

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