Football Stats Hub

Marseille crestMarseille
v
Rennes crestRennes

Ligue 1 | Sun 17 May, 20:00

Marseille v Rennes Stats

Data last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026, 19:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Marseille face Rennes in Ligue 1 on Sun 17 May, 20:00. Marseille boast a formidable home record and historically dominate this fixture at the Vélodrome. However, Rennes are in clinical away form, scoring 16 in their last five trips. Match Control: Possession and Passing

BT4Y match pick

Marseille Win

  • At 12/5, Marseille Win implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • A 2-1 scoreline reflects Marseille's home scoring average of 2.38 goals and their tendency to concede.
  • Rennes have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Marseille.
  • Marseille have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Marseille Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Marseille sit 5 in the table, while Rennes sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Marseille Win sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Rennes have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Marseille. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Marseille's home scoring average of that scoring level and their tendency to concede.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Neutral
Rennes have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Marseille have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
A 2-1 scoreline reflects Marseille's home scoring average of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Marseille Win is the preferred angle because a 2-1 scoreline reflects Marseille's home scoring average of that scoring level and their tendency to concede. Rennes have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Marseille. Neither side are built for caution.

Main risk

Neither side are built for caution.

Key Data Signals

Marseille Win evidence

A 2-1 scoreline reflects Marseille's home scoring average of 2.38 goals and their tendency to concede.

Rennes have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Marseille.

Marseille have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Marseille Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Marseille sit 5 in the table, while Rennes sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Marseille Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Marseille1
    Avg goals scored
    Rennes2.2
    Marseille1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Rennes1.4
    Marseille40%
    BTTS rate
    Rennes80%
    Marseille40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Rennes100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.6 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Marseille and 80% for Rennes, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 49% · edge -21.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Marseille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Marseille to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Ligue 1 analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Marseille5.8
    Avg corners for
    Rennes7.8
    Marseille9
    Avg total corners
    Rennes12.2
    Marseille2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Rennes1.4
    Marseille16.4
    Avg shots
    Rennes15.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 55% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Marseille

    WLDLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    10 May 2026A Le Havre1-0
    02 May 2026A Nantes0-3
    26 Apr 2026H Nice1-1
    18 Apr 2026A Lorient0-2
    10 Apr 2026H Metz3-1

    Rennes

    WLWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 1D 2L
    10 May 2026H Paris FC2-1
    03 May 2026A Lyon2-4
    26 Apr 2026H Nantes2-1
    19 Apr 2026A Strasbourg3-0
    11 Apr 2026H Angers2-1
    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 49% · edge -21.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Marseille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Marseille wins
    2Draws
    2Rennes wins
    03 Feb 2026Marseille v Rennes3-0
    15 Aug 2025Rennes v Marseille1-0
    17 May 2025Marseille v Rennes4-2
    11 Jan 2025Rennes v Marseille1-2
    17 Mar 2024Rennes v Marseille2-0
    21 Jan 2024Rennes v Marseille1-1
    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 49% · edge -21.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Marseille to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Marseille34
    Played
    Rennes34
    Marseille1.9
    Avg goals for
    Rennes1.7
    Marseille1.3
    Avg goals against
    Rennes1.5
    Marseille9
    Clean sheets
    Rennes10
    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 49% · edge -21.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Marseille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Marseille to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Marseille59341851118
    6Rennes593417899
    Marseille sit in position 5, while Rennes sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Marseille Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Marseille Over 2.5
    100%Rennes Over 2.5
    2.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Marseille sit at 40% and Rennes sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Marseille v Rennes prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Rennes v LausanneFriendlies Clubs · Sat 20 Jun 16:30

    Competition and hubs

    Ligue 1 hubmore Ligue 1 analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre