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Maritimo crestMaritimo
v
Santa Clara crestSanta Clara

Primeira Liga | Sun 01 Nov, 18:00

Maritimo v Santa Clara Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 19:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santa Clara arrives in strong form for this Primeira Liga clash against Maritimo, holding fourth place with 18 points compared to Maritimo's 14th position and 8 points. Santa Clara's recent performances have been marked by solid defensive displays, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Maritimo struggles defensively, allowing 2.8 goals on average. Santa Clara's more potent attack, averaging 1.6 goals per match, contrasts with Maritimo's 0.6, suggesting an uphill battle for the home side. The tactical setup likely favors Santa Clara's disciplined defense and efficient counterattacks, making them strong contenders for victory in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Santa Clara to Win

  • Santa Clara ranks 4th with 18 points, Maritimo 14th with 8 points.
  • Santa Clara concedes just 0.6 goals per game; Maritimo concedes 2.8.
  • Santa Clara averages 1.6 goals scored per match, Maritimo 0.6.
  • Santa Clara averages 13 shots and 4.8 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Maritimo has a higher over 2.5 goals rate (80%) but weaker defense, suggesting vulnerability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Santa Clara's strong defensive record and higher league standing underpin the 70% for an away win, supported by their superior shot volume and goal-scoring rate. Maritimo's porous defense and low scoring output contrast sharply, reinforcing Santa Clara's advantage. The at 2.2 offer positive value given the model's 70% win probability. Player-level data highlights Gonçalo Paciência's goal threat, adding attacking potency to Santa Clara's profile. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Probability from Odds60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Santa Clara Defensive Strength0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Maritimo Defensive Weakness2.8 goals conceded per game
Negative
Shot Volume AdvantageSanta Clara 13 vs Maritimo 8.4 average shots
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santa Clara's disciplined defense and efficient attack make them the tactical and statistical favorites to secure victory against a defensively vulnerable Maritimo. Their superior recent form and league position reinforce this outlook, suggesting a well-structured away win is likely in this Primeira Liga encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Santa Clara's blend of defensive solidity and attacking efficiency positions them well to exploit Maritimo's defensive frailties, making an away win a compelling prospect in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Santa Clara to Win evidence

Santa Clara ranks 4th with 18 points, Maritimo 14th with 8 points.

Santa Clara concedes just 0.6 goals per game; Maritimo concedes 2.8.

Santa Clara averages 1.6 goals scored per match, Maritimo 0.6.

Santa Clara averages 13 shots and 4.8 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Santa Clara to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, suggesting a moderately open fixture.
  • Maritimo's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Santa Clara's 60%, indicating potential for goals but also defensive risks for Maritimo.
  • The trend suggests a match with goal-scoring opportunities, particularly favoring Santa Clara's efficient attack and Maritimo's defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Maritimo0.6
Avg goals scored
Santa Clara1.6
Maritimo2.8
Avg goals conceded
Santa Clara0.6
Maritimo60%
BTTS rate
Santa Clara40%
Maritimo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Clara60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 69% · edge +11.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Santa Clara's lower BTTS rate (40%) and strong defense contrast with Maritimo's higher BTTS rate (60%) and leaky defense, indicating a match that may not see both teams scoring. The goal-scoring averages suggest Santa Clara can control the game tempo, limiting Maritimo's scoring opportunities and reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring BTTS outcome.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSanta Clara to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Santa Clara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The 60.5% for Santa Clara to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Santa Clara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Maritimo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Maritimo

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
23 Oct 2026A Vitória SC0-5
10 Oct 2026H FC Porto1-2
19 Sep 2026A GIL Vicente1-1
14 Sep 2026A Moreirense1-3
05 Sep 2026H Benfica0-3

Santa Clara

LWDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 1L
26 Oct 2026H Benfica1-2
10 Oct 2026A Casa Pia1-0
20 Sep 2026H SC Braga0-0
13 Sep 2026A Arouca2-1
06 Sep 2026H Rio Ave4-0
Market aligned with main pickSanta Clara to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Santa Clara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Santa Clara's recent form is markedly superior, accumulating 10 points compared to Maritimo's single point in recent matches. Their defensive resilience and goal-scoring consistency underpin this momentum, while Maritimo's struggles in both attack and defense reflect ongoing challenges. This form disparity supports Santa Clara's likelihood of securing a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Maritimo Over 2.5
60%Santa Clara Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, suggesting a moderately open fixture. Maritimo's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Santa Clara's 60%, indicating potential for goals but also defensive risks for Maritimo. The trend suggests a match with goal-scoring opportunities, particularly favoring Santa Clara's efficient attack and Maritimo's defensive lapses.

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