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Manchester City crestManchester City
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Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

Premier League | Wed 13 May, 20:00

Manchester City v Crystal Palace Stats

Data last updated: Fri 07 Aug 2026, 04:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Manchester City face Crystal Palace in Premier League on Wed 13 May, 20:00. Wednesday night at the Etihad Stadium carries that familiar feeling of pressure, urgency and noise. Manchester City have won their last three home matches by an aggregate score of 9-1, showing dominant form at the Etihad.

BT4Y best bet

Manchester City Win

  • At 4/7, Manchester City Win implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Manchester City have been ruthless at home, winning their last three Etihad matches with a 9-1 aggregate score.
  • Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Crystal Palace.
  • Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Manchester City sit 2 in the table, while Crystal Palace sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Manchester City Win sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Crystal Palace. Manchester City have been ruthless at home, winning their last three Etihad matches with a 9-1 aggregate score.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Positive
Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester City have been ruthless at home, winning their.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Manchester City Win is the preferred angle because manchester City have been ruthless at home, winning their last three Etihad matches with a 9-1 aggregate score. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Crystal Palace. City are averaging over two goals per game, but Palace possess enough attacking quality through Sarr and Mateta to find the net.

Main risk

City are averaging over two goals per game, but Palace possess enough attacking quality through Sarr and Mateta to find the net.

Key Data Signals

Manchester City Win evidence

Manchester City have been ruthless at home, winning their last three Etihad matches with a 9-1 aggregate score.

Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 5 for Crystal Palace.

Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Manchester City sit 2 in the table, while Crystal Palace sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Manchester City Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Manchester City10
    Avg corners for
    Crystal Palace4
    Manchester City13.8
    Avg total corners
    Crystal Palace10.4
    Manchester City1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Crystal Palace1.4
    Manchester City21.4
    Avg shots
    Crystal Palace12.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.1 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Manchester City2.4
    Avg goals scored
    Crystal Palace1
    Manchester City0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Crystal Palace1.8
    Manchester City40%
    BTTS rate
    Crystal Palace60%
    Manchester City80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Crystal Palace80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +12 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 83% · edge -9.3 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Manchester City to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Manchester City

    WDWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 3D 0L
    09 May 2026H Brentford3-0
    04 May 2026A Everton3-3
    22 Apr 2026A Burnley1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Arsenal2-1
    12 Apr 2026A Chelsea3-0

    Crystal Palace

    DLLDW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    10 May 2026H Everton2-2
    03 May 2026A Bournemouth0-3
    25 Apr 2026A Liverpool1-3
    20 Apr 2026H West Ham0-0
    12 Apr 2026H Newcastle2-1
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 83% · edge -9.3 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.03
    Check odds @ 1.03
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Manchester City wins
    3Draws
    2Crystal Palace wins
    14 Dec 2025Crystal Palace v Manchester City0-3
    17 May 2025Crystal Palace v Manchester City1-0
    12 Apr 2025Manchester City v Crystal Palace5-2
    07 Dec 2024Crystal Palace v Manchester City2-2
    06 Apr 2024Crystal Palace v Manchester City2-4
    16 Dec 2023Manchester City v Crystal Palace2-2
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 83% · edge -9.3 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Manchester City to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Manchester City38
    Played
    Crystal Palace38
    Manchester City2
    Avg goals for
    Crystal Palace1.1
    Manchester City0.9
    Avg goals against
    Crystal Palace1.3
    Manchester City16
    Clean sheets
    Crystal Palace12
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 83% · edge -9.3 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Season data supports Manchester City to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Manchester City7838239642
    15Crystal Palace4538111215-10
    Manchester City sit in position 2, while Crystal Palace sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the Manchester City Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Manchester City Over 2.5
    80%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
    3.4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Manchester City sit at 80% and Crystal Palace sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Manchester City v Crystal Palace prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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