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Manchester Cityv
BrentfordPremier League | Sat 09 May, 17:30
Manchester City v Brentford Stats
BT4Y best bet
Under 2.5 Goals
- At 3.2, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 31% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 48%, so the current line is showing a +16.2-point value edge.
- Manchester City are at 60% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Brentford are at 60%, and the H2H goal average is 2.2.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Manchester City have taken 3 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Brentford have taken 1 win from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 3.2, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 24% · edge +17.9 pts
4.15
Bet HERE @ 4.15Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
60%Manchester City Over 2.5
60%Brentford Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Manchester City
DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 recordLast 107W 3D 0L
04 May 2026A Everton3-3
22 Apr 2026A Burnley1-0
19 Apr 2026H Arsenal2-1
12 Apr 2026A Chelsea3-0
14 Mar 2026A West Ham1-1
Brentford
WLDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 recordLast 102W 6D 2L
02 May 2026H West Ham3-0
27 Apr 2026A Manchester United1-2
18 Apr 2026H Fulham0-0
11 Apr 2026H Everton2-2
21 Mar 2026A Leeds0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 24% · edge +17.9 pts
4.15
Bet HERE @ 4.15Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Manchester City2
Avg goals scoredBrentford1.2
Manchester City1
Avg goals concededBrentford0.8
Manchester City60%
BTTS rateBrentford40%
Manchester City60%
Over 2.5 goalsBrentford60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 31% · edge +16.2 pts
3.2
Bet HERE @ 3.2Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
7Manchester City wins
1Draws
2Brentford wins
17 Dec 2025Manchester City v Brentford2-0
05 Oct 2025Brentford v Manchester City0-1
14 Jan 2025Brentford v Manchester City2-2
14 Sep 2024Manchester City v Brentford2-1
20 Feb 2024Manchester City v Brentford1-0
05 Feb 2024Brentford v Manchester City1-3
Best odds for this sectionHome WinBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 74% · edge -4.5 pts
1.36
Bet HERE @ 1.36Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Manchester City11
Avg corners forBrentford4.6
Manchester City14.6
Avg total cornersBrentford9.6
Manchester City1.2
Avg yellow cardsBrentford1
Manchester City21.2
Avg shotsBrentford12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Bet HERE @ 1.8Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
ThiagoBrentford · Attacker
Goal threat78/100
Shots /901.88
SOT /901.22
T. ReijndersManchester City · Midfielder
Goal threat54/100
Shots /901.86
SOT /900.9
K. SchadeBrentford · Midfielder
Goal threat48/100
Shots /901.45
SOT /900.78
R. DonovanBrentford · Midfielder
Goal threat35/100
Shots /902.37
SOT /902.37
R. NelsonBrentford · Attacker
Goal threat22/100
Shots /903.21
SOT /900.64
V. JaneltBrentford · Midfielder
Goal threat22/100
Shots /900.64
SOT /900.21
Nico GonzálezManchester City · Midfielder
Goal threat17/100
Shots /900.3
SOT /900.12
Season team stats
Premier League
Manchester City34
PlayedBrentford35
Manchester City2
Avg goals forBrentford1.5
Manchester City0.9
Avg goals againstBrentford1.3
Manchester City14
Clean sheetsBrentford10
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 24% · edge +17.9 pts
4.15
Bet HERE @ 4.15Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manchester City | 71 | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Brentford | 51 | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
