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Malaga crestMalaga
v
Almeria crestAlmeria

Segunda División | Sun 14 Jun, 20:00

Malaga v Almeria Stats

Data last updated: Fri 10 Jul 2026, 06:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Malaga face Almeria in Segunda División on Sun 14 Jun, 20:00. Almería have produced six straight home wins at their stadium, scoring at least twice in each fixture. This intense attacking volume makes them formidable at home, compensating for their overall erratic form and outweighing Málaga's strong six-game unbeaten run on the road.

BT4Y best bet

A general score volume without tying yourself to a precise configuration

  • At 1/1, Malaga Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Almería have scored at least twice in six home games, making a narrow 2-1 layout scoreline plausible.
  • Malaga have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Almeria.
  • Malaga have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Malaga Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Malaga sit 4 in the table, while Almeria sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Malaga Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Malaga have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Almeria. Almería have scored at least twice in six home games, making a narrow 2-1 layout scoreline plausible.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Strong positive
Malaga have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Malaga have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Almería have scored at least twice in six home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Malaga Win is the preferred angle because almería have scored at least twice in six home games, making a narrow 2-1 layout scoreline plausible. Malaga have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Almeria. That is balanced, but not dominant.

Main risk

That is balanced, but not dominant.

Key Data Signals

Malaga Win evidence

Almería have scored at least twice in six home games, making a narrow 2-1 layout scoreline plausible.

Malaga have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Almeria.

Malaga have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Malaga Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Malaga sit 4 in the table, while Almeria sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Malaga Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Malaga1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Almeria1.4
    Malaga0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Almeria1.6
    Malaga60%
    BTTS rate
    Almeria80%
    Malaga20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Almeria60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMalaga to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 44% · edge +23.5 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Malaga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Malaga to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Malaga v Almeria predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Malaga4.2
    Avg corners for
    Almeria4
    Malaga8.4
    Avg total corners
    Almeria9.2
    Malaga1
    Avg yellow cards
    Almeria3.6
    Malaga14.2
    Avg shots
    Almeria16
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 48% · edge +7.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Malaga

    DWWDW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    10 Jun 2026H Las Palmas1-1
    07 Jun 2026A Las Palmas1-0
    31 May 2026A Zaragoza2-0
    24 May 2026H Racing Santander1-1
    16 May 2026A AD Ceuta FC4-1

    Almeria

    WDWLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    09 Jun 2026H Castellón3-2
    06 Jun 2026A Castellón1-1
    31 May 2026H Valladolid1-0
    24 May 2026A Sporting Gijon1-3
    16 May 2026H Las Palmas1-2
    Market aligned with main pickMalaga to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 44% · edge +23.5 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Malaga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Malaga wins
    3Draws
    4Almeria wins
    19 Apr 2026Almeria v Malaga3-2
    21 Dec 2025Malaga v Almeria2-1
    26 Jul 2025Almeria v Malaga1-2
    01 Mar 2025Almeria v Malaga2-2
    08 Dec 2024Malaga v Almeria1-1
    27 Jul 2024Malaga v Almeria0-1
    Market aligned with main pickMalaga to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 44% · edge +23.5 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Malaga to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Segunda División

    Malaga46
    Played
    Almeria46
    Malaga1.7
    Avg goals for
    Almeria1.9
    Malaga1.2
    Avg goals against
    Almeria1.5
    Malaga13
    Clean sheets
    Almeria10
    Market aligned with main pickMalaga to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 44% · edge +23.5 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Malaga Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Season data supports Malaga to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Almeria74422281218
    4Malaga734221101123
    Malaga sit in position 4, while Almeria sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Malaga Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Malaga Over 2.5
    60%Almeria Over 2.5
    2.4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Malaga sit at 20% and Almeria sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Malaga v Almeria prediction

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    Betting context

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