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Lyon crestLyon
v
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

UEFA Europa League | Thu 15 Oct, 17:45

Lyon v Crystal Palace Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 11:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lyon face Crystal Palace in UEFA Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 17:45. Lyon come in with 3 recent points and 2 goals per match, while Crystal Palace have 3 points and 4 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.67, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 75%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Lyon and 100% for Crystal Palace, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Crystal Palace are carrying more of the scoring load at 4 goals per match, with Lyon at 2.
  • BTTS rates of 100% for Lyon and 0% for Crystal Palace show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 75% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Lyon and 100% for Crystal Palace, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price75% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Lyon and 100%.Visible data support
Positive
Crystal Palace are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Lyon and 100% for Crystal Palace, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Lyon and 100% for Crystal Palace, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Crystal Palace are carrying more of the scoring load at 4 goals per match, with Lyon at 2.

BTTS rates of 100% for Lyon and 0% for Crystal Palace show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lyon2
Avg goals scored
Crystal Palace4
Lyon1
Avg goals conceded
Crystal Palace0
Lyon100%
BTTS rate
Crystal Palace0%
Lyon100%
Over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League hubcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Crystal Palace to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lyon

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
16 Sep 2026A Anderlecht2-1

Crystal Palace

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Sep 2026H Lech Poznan4-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 60% · edge +0.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Crystal Palace to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Lyon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Lyon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Crystal Palace Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Lyon Over 2.5
100%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lyon sit at 100% and Crystal Palace sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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