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Lyngby crestLyngby
v
FC Nordsjaelland crestFC Nordsjaelland

Superliga | Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland meet in a Superliga clash where both teams have shown relatively cautious attacking output recently. Lyngby has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match, while FC Nordsjaelland concedes fewer at 1.6 per game. Both sides have registered a modest goal-scoring rate, with Lyngby averaging 1.2 goals and Nordsjaelland 1.0. Recent form points to tight contests, with both teams earning 5 points in their last matches and a shared 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a controlled tempo and defensive discipline likely to limit scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average only 1.1 goals per game combined recently, indicating low scoring.
  • Lyngby concedes 2.2 goals per match, but FC Nordsjaelland’s 1.6 goals against suggests defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals matches, showing a tendency towards lower scoring games.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over 10 matches, supporting a moderate scoring trend.
  • Shot data shows moderate attempts with low shots on target, reinforcing a cautious attacking approach.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 56.4% probability, reflecting the defensive tendencies and recent scoring patterns of both teams. Despite Lyngby’s defensive vulnerabilities, FC Nordsjaelland’s more disciplined backline and the modest attacking output from both sides suggest limited goal-scoring chances. The 40% Over 2.5 rate for each team and the average 2.7 goals in their head-to-head matches align with a controlled game likely to stay under three goals. The price offers positive value with a 16.4% edge and no warnings on sensitivity.

Model Probability55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredLyngby 1.2, Nordsjaelland 1.0 per game
Positive
Defensive RecordsLyngby concedes 2.2, Nordsjaelland concedes 1.6 per game
Neutral
Over 2.5 RateBoth teams 40% matches Over 2.5 Goals
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.7 goals per match over last 10 meetings
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given the tactical caution both teams have shown recently. Lyngby’s defensive struggles are balanced by FC Nordsjaelland’s more conservative approach, resulting in a match likely to feature limited scoring opportunities. The recent form and goal averages support a tight contest with fewer than three goals expected.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Low-scoring tactical setup

“This fixture’s modest attacking output combined with disciplined defensive setups suggests a low-scoring match. The Under 2.5 Goals bet aligns well with the teams’ recent trends and tactical approaches.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average only 1.1 goals per game combined recently, indicating low scoring.

Lyngby concedes 2.2 goals per match, but FC Nordsjaelland’s 1.6 goals against suggests defensive solidity.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over 10 matches, supporting a moderate scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2.7, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a match where goal-scoring chances are limited and the tempo controlled, favoring an Under 2.5 Goals outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lyngby1.2
Avg goals scored
FC Nordsjaelland1
Lyngby2.2
Avg goals conceded
FC Nordsjaelland1.6
Lyngby60%
BTTS rate
FC Nordsjaelland40%
Lyngby40%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Nordsjaelland40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have modest goal-scoring records and a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards controlled scoring. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals suggests matches are competitive but not high-scoring, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals angle with limited BTTS likelihood.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lyngby

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
11 Oct 2026A Brondby2-5
18 Sep 2026H Silkeborg0-4
13 Sep 2026H Sonderjyske1-1
04 Sep 2026A Viborg2-0
30 Aug 2026H Odense1-1

FC Nordsjaelland

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
09 Oct 2026H Odense0-0
20 Sep 2026A Viborg1-4
13 Sep 2026H Aarhus2-0
07 Sep 2026A FC Midtjylland2-2
03 Sep 2026A FC Copenhagen0-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Lyngby to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Lyngby Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
FC Nordsjaelland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
FC Nordsjaelland to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form shows both teams earning 5 points in their last matches with low scoring outputs: Lyngby averages 1.2 goals while conceding 2.2, and Nordsjaelland scores 1.0 while conceding 1.6. Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a tendency to keep matches relatively low scoring and supporting the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLyngby to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
Lyngby Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
FC Nordsjaelland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
FC Nordsjaelland to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 55% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Lyngby and 40% for FC Nordsjaelland, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lyngby Over 2.5
40%FC Nordsjaelland Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2.7, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a match where goal-scoring chances are limited and the tempo controlled, favoring an Under 2.5 Goals outcome.

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